In the world of business press reported the possible privatization of the Saudi state oil cherezIPO kompaniiSaudi Aramco. Currently Aramcokontroliruet more than 10% of world production of black gold. The main issue of concern to the market, whether the Saudis will make free sale of shares of Saudi Aramco change strategy to reduce oil prices by eliminating the reduction of production volumes.
In our view, this is unlikely, as it is unlikely investors will be offered a majority stake. In general, sales of the oil market in the period of low oil prices is a bad idea and a very good opportunity for investors to make money. However, this investment is associated with serious political risks from conflict with Iran and ending the internal political instability.
At the same time the political support of the Saudi royal family from the United States, in our view, greatly exaggerated. In addition, the proposed privatization via IPO may cause a revision of investment portfolios and, consequently, the sale of the world's major oil chips, including such as Gazprom, Lukoil and Rosneft. Plans for the Saudi authorities also jeopardize the partial privatization of Rosneft, which is scheduled for the current year.