Mohamed El-Erian, a former strategist at PIMCO and insider-anaitik Newsmax Finance, believes that the likelihood of a recession in 2017 is 25-30% - based on AMarkets.
"The road on which we are going, sooner or later will lead to a dead end - says the expert. - Central banks can not long remain the only chip on the playing field. " El-Erian thinks that investors should prepare for increased volatility in the coming months against the backdrop of divergent policies Feda and other Central Bank. The expert drew attention to the dynamics of the index "fear» - CBOE Volatility Index - against the backdrop of sagging stock market to annual lows.
However, not all market pessimistic. For example, BMO Capital represented by Brian Belsky sees positive signals. For example, such a fact - long-term rates are now higher than the short-term. Recessions usually happens when the stakes are moving around in the same direction. Next - the consumer confidence indicators are still growing. Sentiment stewards - at a maximum since 2005. Sales of luxury cars and other durable goods are growing. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits - at least 15 years.