Given the delay in raising interest rates by the Federal Reserve, the turmoil in global stock markets ... and now has increased expectations the economic downturn in the United States.
The probability that the world's largest economy will enter into recession in the next 12 months jumped to 15%, the highest level since October 2013, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg 2-7 October. The average score was maintained at 10% for 13 consecutive months. Fears of China and the potential side effects for other economies have led to what economists have cut growth forecasts for the United States in the third quarter by 2%. Fed officials are also concerned about the situation in China, citing it as a risk to the outlook for economic growth and inflation. It also served as a justification for the delay of the first increase in the base interest rate since 2006. "Although US economic data were generally in line with market expectations, domestic financial conditions are a bit tougher, as concerns about global growth prospects, concentrated in China, have caused an increase in volatility in the financial markets and the deterioration of risk sentiment in the period between meetings, "- said in
the minutes of the Fed meeting 16-17sentyabrya published on Thursday. Although there is good news in a separate study, the economists predicted that the US will not enter a recession until 2019, when the last survey months, they thought that it could happen in 2018.
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According to the materials WELTRADE