In recent weeks, in blogs and even among some economists have become visible "bullish" expectations, suggesting that in the near future is possible rapid reversal of the market.
And the emergence of such sentiment is not surprising against the background of already three times the rebound in oil prices from a level of $ 36. Many people have the impression that the lower the price will not fall.
These bullish fuels and OPEC supposedly predictive $ 160 per barrel (remember that even the most expensive shale pay off at $ 60-70 for the "barrel", and Canadian and Venezuelan "bitumen" neftedobytchniki will feel comfortable even at the price of $ 45-50 per Texas Light).
It is evident that the transition from the level of prices "crisis" in 2008 to prices in 2004 is successful for many symbolic significance. Out of the price range of 2008-2009. not in the direction desired exporters will $ 160, and in the direction desired by importers $ 15 (this figure appears regularly in the media, when trying to make a comparison with the crisis of the 80's adjusted changes in the cost due to the tightening of Russian oil production) may indicate a serious tactical victory Technology progress on cartel-oligarchic politics.
In addition, this milestone is seen by many as the real. Indeed, in the not too distant 2008 from him it began rekornoe price increases. This simplifies the emirs and oligarchs game on the rise in this area. As a result, both times the price jumped in the zone 38-40 $ / barrel.
However, economic factors, which in 2008 led to a sharp rise in price currently available:
- Exhausted resource falling oil production in Iran and Iraq, who have suffered from civil wars, the Iran-Iraq, Iraq-Kuwait, from the Sunni-Sunni strife in Iraq by the US invasion, from the international sanctions, but eventually the two countries returned to the market and restore their volumes;
- US importer of oil turned to her esportera. US reached full energy independence, for which they sought the last 40 years;
- In 2008, Iraq in international politics was not involved at all, and Iran is a rogue state was not able to influence anything, but now these countries are international, including economic, political associates, among other consequences that divides the leadership of OPEC and hinders the achievement of an agreement on the reduction of quotas. On aktivizorovavsheysya in 2011, the world's Sunni-Shiite strife OPEC may be in sitatsii inability to make decisions for much longer than many expect.
- Since 2008, 7 years have passed. Even the price level for this period are not always clearly comparable. Especially in the industry, has received in recent years as a significant development as oil, enegetika and production of alternative fuels.
In fact - this line is not so hard as it seems.
After the opening of the US market for the export of crude oil price difference between the basic grades of oil was established at the level of 22 cents in favor of "slantsevikov." That cost is quite close to the United States for European imports. At the same time, European consumers, as indicated by the first contract, still willing to overpay for American oil; apparently, perceiving the US as a supplier more reliable than Russian, and Middle Eastern. In place of the oil exported from the United States expected to import raw materials from neighbors (Canada and Mexico). The displacement of the traditional suppliers of European American manufacturers can not but lead to a new wave of discounts for black gold of the Old World, who will compete for the market.
Thus, the objective factors suggest that the preconditions for the further decline in oil prices has not been exhausted.
It is even without taking into account the forecast of "soft" winter in the northern hemisphere, especially since it is to this bold statement meteorologists should be treated with healthy skepticism. Since modern weather technology does not really allow today to predict in February.
It is obvious that in the coming days will test the level of oil prices over $ 36 / bbl. And this time, seems to fall to the level of prices in 2004 for a long time.