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Main » 2015 » October » 2 » The overall outlook for the euro nonfarm
The overall outlook for the euro nonfarm

Today, on the day of the September employment report in the United States, the foreign exchange market, as usual in front of such an event, currencies consolidated in narrow ranges. The observed increase in mid-week risk appetite has now been largely priced in, and it did not lead to very strong changes in exchange rates.

On the eve of the US nonfarma out conflicting data. Manufacturing PMI PMI rose from 53 to 53.1. But this same indicator on the ISM fell from 51.1 to 50.2. We note that increased this week and apply for unemployment benefits. 

 As to forecasts for nonfarm, obviously, the number of newly created jobs will exceed the previous value of 173 thousand poor. Particularly acute current figure gives that just before the Fed chief Janet Yellen has once again announced the possibility of a rate hike at any meeting. The nearest of them - the end of October. And the employment rate is traditionally closely targetiruyutsya Fed. Acceptable value of creating new jobs is the level of 200 thousand., Forecast for September - 203 thousand. Exceeding this value will give impetus to the growth of the dollar, but it is unlikely to be significant. Assume further that the unemployment rate will remain at a value of 5.1%.

In general, the movement of major currencies, in our opinion, is not expected today extremely high. It seems that the current level of exchange rates satisfy the Fed. She is not interested in a sharp increase in the dollar, which discourages economic growth, or in its fall, making imports more expensive. Most likely the gradual strengthening of the US currency, with the movement of the dollar index from the current 96.4 p. 97-98 to the target and beyond. But at the same time remain ambitious side corridors in wide ranges of 250-200 points, the likely significant correction of major currencies against the dollar.

For the main corridor of the currency pair such acts currently range 1,1050-1,13. The dynamics of the motion will determine and indicators for the euro area. This week they are not pleased.

Manufacturing PMI declined in September from 53.2 to 52. The producer price index in August fell from minus 2.1% to minus 2.6%. The problem of migration, with the Volkswagen scandal, the willingness of the ECB to expand the program of quantitative easing - all factors that strongly press on the future quotes euros. Gradually, they will move

To levels below 1.10. But in this process the euro as a currency is able to present to funding growth and surprises, as it often was in the coming months. But it is unlikely in any case, the bulls will be able to overcome resistance at 1.1460 strategic.

Chart EUR / USD H4: 


Mark Goikhman analyst  TeleTrade

The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market 

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