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Main » 2016 » January » 26 » The odds for a recession have increased
The odds for a recession have increased

Loss of global stock markets, as calculated by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, approaching $ 8 trillion mark at the start of 2016 (three weeks in January) - Materials AMarkets.




 Last week, investors are well invested in funds of government bonds - has turned into the 12-month high. The main concern of players - the world economy is close to the entrance of another recession. The probability of recession in 2016 rose from 15% to 20% - a forecast by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

The Bank, inter alia, lowered the growth forecast for the world GDP from 2.5% to 2.1%. The main concern of the experts - the leaders of the central banks have no idea how to deal with a new crisis. The experts do not believe that the fundamentals are really bad - judging by the labor market. It's not so bad, however, it is difficult to convince investors. January turned out to be almost the worst month in the history of the stock market. Several factors played a negative - increase in the Fed rate, the stagnation of the Chinese economy, falling oil prices.

The recession in terms of the theory - two consecutive quarters when GDP growth rates are falling. The last quarter of 2015 was clearly stagnant. The first quarter of 2016 shows no signs of growth. The industrial segment is in a recession right now. This, in turn, sooner or later begin to put pressure on the labor market.


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