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Main » 2018 » May » 31 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 31/05/2018: EURO Buyers confused
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 31/05/2018: EURO Buyers confused


Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday, May 30, trading in the euro / dollar closed higher. Against the background of the corrective movement in the dollar, the common currency was able to return to the level of 1.1647, which was followed by new sales. From the achieved level of 1.1595 euro soared to 1.1676.

In place of sentiments market traders caused a message from Reuters. It said that the party "Movement 5 stars" urged Paolo Savona to withdraw his candidacy for the post of Minister of Economy, to be able to find a compromise on the candidate and to form a government. Savona offered to join the government, but not as the Minister of Economy.



Published US statistics:

GDP Index in U.S. + 2.2% g / g (prediction was 2.3% g / g, the previous value of 2.3% g / g).

The trade deficit in trade in goods in the US in April was $ 68.2 billion (forecast was - $ 71.2 billion, the previous value - $ 68.59).

The number of new jobs in the private sector in the US 178 thousand. (Forecast was 186 thousand., The previous value of 163 thousand.)


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:15 Switzerland will report on changes in retail sales in April. The indicator does not affect the dynamics of the major pairs. Frank too weak to react to it.

At 11:30 Britain will declare the change in net lending to public, changing the unit volume of M4 money supply and the number of approved applications for a mortgage loan in April. Market participants often ignore these figures.

At 12:00, the euro zone will release the consumer price index for May and announced changes in the unemployment rate in April. Inflation Report is important for the ECB, and thus for the euro. These will have a strong impact on the couple at a deviation of the actual value of the forecast. higher inflation - the strengthening of the euro, decreased - the weakening of the euro.

Just at this time to give a speech FOMC member James Bullard. FOMC members appeared frequently, so you can not ignore them.

At 15:30 Canada will announce the change of GDP in March and 1st quarter. Also at this time the United States will present the main index of the cost of private consumption in April, and also announced a change in personal income / spending for April and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits. Before peyrols all indicators are important for the market.

At 16:45 the US will release the index of purchasing managers in Chicago in May. The reaction to the Chicago index would depend on the reaction of traders in the published statistics above.

At 17:00 the US will be informed about the change in the volume of pending home sales for April. If the market by this time will be flat, there may be slight variations in the range of 15 points.  

At 18:00 will report Energy SSCHA to change the oil reserves. The report is important for traders of oil and commodity currencies.

At 19:35 he will make a speech, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Sylvain Leduc.

At 19:45 with a speech made by members of FOMC Raphael Bostic.

At 20:00 a speech made by members of FOMC Lyell Braynard.


EUR / USD Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView


From 1.1619 price EUR / USD has recovered to the trend line. for trendline area was reinforced 112 degrees (1.1681). Sales from 1.1655 closed on foot. The price of EUR / USD for the night to defend at the level of 1.1660, and stop today is no longer fit into the market fluctuations after the break of the trend line. The bet is that the price will rebound from the trend line, because in addition to Italy, the downward risks for the euro came from Spain. On Friday, Spain's parliament will vote for the vote of confidence Rahoyu president. It may end not in his favor, it will only increase the uncertainty.

Buy euros at such an important event, scary, and if reconnecting to shortstop for EUR / USD, it is better from the MA line U3 (1.1717). If the hourly candle closes below 1.1660, locks false breakdown. In this case it is worth their attention switched to support the EUR / USD 1,1645-1,1650. Because of its sample return to the sellers' market and aim EUR / USD near 1.1550 again become relevant.  


Forex Forecast EUR / USD Vladislav Antonov Alpari



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