Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:
In the Monday, June 25, trading in the euro / dollar in the growth. After the price reduction to the level of 1.1628 buyers it back to the resistance at 1.1675. With the reduction in yield of US bonds they have overcome it successfully and to the closing of the daily candle lifted the euro to the level of 1.1713.
Donald Trump continues to rock the markets plans to raise tariffs on Chinese and European products. Yesterday there was information that he was planning to limit the Chinese companies investing in technology companies in the US. He also wants to introduce a 20% tariff on the importation of cars from the EU. Subject of trade relations with the US will be central at the summit of EU leaders on June 28-29.
Planned statistics (GMT + 3):
At 11:30 UK reported changes approved by BBA mortgage data for May. According to the forecast, the number of approved loans rose to 40.129 thousand. To 38 thousand. In April. Pound responds to this figure, when it deviates strongly from the forecast values.
At 12:00 a speech made by members of the Committee on Monetary Policy Bank of England's Jonathan Haskell.
At 12:30 a speech made by members of the Monetary Policy Committee McCafferty. Two Bank of England representative of their statements can have a strong impact on the pound.
At 13:00 UK will release the index of retail sales according to the CBI in June. Fluctuations pair pound / dollar at the time of the release of statistics may be about 30 points.
At 16:00 the US will present the house price index from the S & P / Case-Shiller April. It is expected that the index grow up to 6.8% per year after a similar increase in March. The indicator does not affect the dynamics of the dollar.
At 17:00 the US will publish the indicator of consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index for June. According to the forecast, the consumer confidence index remained at the level of 128.0 points. I would not pay any attention to these indicators.
20:15 In a speech made by members of FOMC Raphael Bostic. After the US Federal Reserve meeting statements by the representatives of the Central Bank has no effect on the market.
The current situation is EUR / USD:
The euro rebounded over 66 hours at 210 points. The single currency on the hourly period is in local "bull" trend with support at 1.1690. Today during the Asian session the quotations rose to the level of 1.1720.
Against the background of escalating trade conflicts risky assets may suffer a loss to the closure. Given that the euro has formed a triangle end, according to the forecast, I consider today a drop to the level of 1.1632.
Perhaps I have a very optimistic view of the euro today, but in the afternoon period is preserved "bearish" trend, and after 66 hours the upward movement is possible to see the prices drop, the more the final triangle divergence indicator AO are "bearish" signals. The euro now costs $ 1.1693. Sellers need to skip the level of 1.1690, and the fall accelerated.
Today, the European calendar is almost empty. Attention can be directed to the statistics from the UK and presentations by members of the Bank of England MPC Haskell and McCafferty, trying to catch hints at rate hike regulator. In the American session scheduled performances Fed members Bostic and Kaplan.
Forecast for today EUR / USD pair Vladislav Antonov Alpari