Results of the last trading day:
In Thursday, April 12, trading in the euro / dollar finished lower. Softening statements by US President D.Trampom over Syria has caused strengthening of the dollar, rising stock indices and the yield of US bonds. Trump also said that trade talks between Washington and Beijing are going well than provide additional support for the dollar.
The yield on the US 10-year bonds rose from 2,773 to a level of 2.840%. During the American session the euro dropped to 1.2300.
The ECB has expressed concern about a possible trade war with the United States, and the strengthening of the euro. This is stated in the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB's monetary policy.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 11:00 the Eurozone will report on changes in the trade balance for February.
At 15:00 a speech made by members of FOMC Rosengren.
At 16:00 he will make a speech FOMC member Bullard.
At 17:00 in the US will be released consumer confidence index from Reuters / Michigan in April, and a report on the level of vacancies and labor turnover from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for April.
At 20:00 in the US will be represented by Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production. A speech made by members of FOMC Kaplan.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
My yesterday's expectations on decrease of the euro up to the 67th degree is fully justified. The fall has stopped at the level of 1.2300. Customer Support has a local minimum of 10 April. Before reaching the 90th degree, the price jumped to the level of 1.2340, which started another correction. It is the price of 12 hours.
Due to the rebound situation became a bit controversial, but if sellers now or in early European trade show activity, by the closing of the European session, the euro will test against the US dollar level of 1.2285.
Dollar in Asia shows a mixed trend against other major currencies. He strengthened against defensive assets (franc, yen), and thus investors are currently not worried about the Syrian issue. The economic calendar is empty for Europe. If no statement from the US is not followed, then market participants will adhere to the technical signals. Scenario to reduce canceled at closing hour candle above 1.2352.
An alternative scenario in case the buyers will want to reverse the downward trend and break through the trend line at 1.2345.
Pronoza EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari