Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:
On Wednesday, 10 October, the euro trades in the growth of EUR / USD. After the fall of the euro to 1.1480 price EUR / USD rebounded to 1.1545.
There are several factors that could deploy a couple of euro / dollar rate:
- A sharp drop in the yield on 10-year US government bonds and the dollar index. US10Y value dropped from 3.24% to 3.16%. In Asia, the yield dropped to 3.14%.
- The fall of the US stock indices. Investors began to sell shares in all sectors, as the rise in the US Fed's interest rates make bonds attractive at the time of the stock market overheated.
- The deal to Brekzitu ready by 80-85%, and can be concluded as early as next Wednesday, October 17th. This was announced yesterday by the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. The pound strengthened throughout the market. EUR / USD and GBP / USD - one-way pair.
Planned statistics (GMT + 3):
14:20 OPEC's monthly report will be released in the United States.
At 14:30 the ECB to publish the minutes from the monetary policy meeting.
At 15:30 Canada will release the price index for new homes in August, the US - the consumer price index for September and data on changes in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
At 18:00 US Department of Energy will publish a report on changes in stocks of oil according to the Ministry of Energy.
At 21:00 in the US will be released monthly performance report for September.
Fig. 1 hourly chart of EUR / USD
Current Situation EURUSD:
strengthening of the euro factors I listed above. Yesterday, the euro rose to 90 grams today -. To 112 gr. For me the band 112-135 gr. a reversal, but to sell the euro from 1.1565 I did not have time. While it is necessary to look at the situation from the market.
Yesterday collapsed the price of oil than a blow to the commodity currencies. Against the background of a weakening dollar and reducing US10Y, the oil market is relegated to the background. Today, speculators can come back to it and think about yesterday's fall. About oil, I wrote in a review of the ruble (link below).
With the high price of 1.1572 EURUSD dropped to 1.1548. Sellers keep the EURUSD rate to the trend line from 1.1432. At this hour it passes through 1.1530. Considering the three peaks rising to AD, it is believed that the trend line is broken.
If the price reaches 1.1548 EURUSD, traders will see the head and shoulders. And then it does not matter - it is correct or not combined cycle. The question is - how many traders see the model and how much money they will put on it? And if it is done, the price returns to 1.1475. Examined the decline of the euro, is now on the rise.
And that with the growth of EURUSD? If the price rebounds from the trend line, the general background of the weakening dollar and the decrease in the yield US10Y buyers are able to test the 135-th degree. And then down again, because AO between the indicator and the price formed bearish divergence.
The euro strengthened against the dollar from the sharp pullback. As if the market specifically draws buyers, so that they began to believe in the rally and activated slices for sale euro. If you watch the daily TF, the rebound was recorded. Now you need to check the decline in intentions EURUSD sellers. If their activity is low, the price after the move to 1,1650+ correction.
Forex EURUSD forecast today Vladislav Antonov Alpari
Do not miss : USD / RUB - outlook for the pair dollar / ruble October 2018