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Main » 2018 » September » 26 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 09/26/2018: The market in anticipation of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve
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The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 09/26/2018: The market in anticipation of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve

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Results of the last trading day EURUSD:


Tuesday, 25 September, the euro closed higher bids. Daily candle closed above the line carrying clock. The euro rose to 1.1792 against the background of decline in yield of US bonds. Upon reaching the level of 3.11% yield on 10-year bonds began to decline. It is unclear what caused its decline as the Fed expected to raise rates today, and the index of consumer confidence in the United States far exceeded expectations and reached the highest level since 2000. The previous value is revised upward.

 

 

 

 

Planned statistics (GMT + 3):  

At 11:00 Switzerland is to publish an index of expectations of Swiss investors according to ZEW and Credit Suisse in September. No effect on the market. 

At 11:30 in the UK, there are data on changes of approved applications for mortgage loans on the BBA figures for August. At 13:00 - index of retail sales according to the CBI in September. If the data coincide with the forecast, the reaction to them will not.  

At 16:00 Switzerland will present the quarterly inflation report from the SNB.

At 17:00 the US will declare the change in sales of new buildings in August, will be released at 17:30 US Department of Energy report on oil stocks.

At 21:00 in the US will be announced FOMC decision on the basic interest rate as well as the accompanying statement will be released and the economic outlook. At 21:30 - press conference the head of the US Federal Reserve.

At 00:00 on Thursday in New Zealand will be announced RBNZ decision on the basic interest rate as well as the accompanying statement will be released and the RBNZ RBNZ statement on monetary policy. At 1:00 will be a press conference by the RBNZ.

 

Fig. 1 hourly chart of EUR / USD

 

Current Situation EURUSD:


Correction EURUSD held above the expected level. Because of this apparent triangle formation. It's definitely not a triangle (wave does not correspond to the structure of the wave), so do not even try to look for it here and customize the layout. For me, the triangular formation - this is not the triangle in wave analysis, but simply tapered formation, not more.


Yesterday began a two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The decision will be announced in 21:00 (GMT + 3). According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike by 25 bp is 95%. Currently, the range for the federal funds rate is 1.75-2.00%. Interest to traders will represent forecasts for further rate hikes. The probability of increasing in December was 78.8%.  


Many crosses with the euro are on the side of the sellers. By the close of the US session, waiting for EURUSD at 1.1738. Looked at the yield on 10-year US bonds. It is now reduced. If things continue to go well, then drop the EURUSD slow. Or the euro dollar generally remain until the US session around carrying line. Today there is a high volatility during the speech of the US Federal Reserve. Courtesy of that of the range narrowed, the EURUSD price fluctuations can be up to 100 points. Powell today deploy a couple of euro / dollar rate down, or create conditions for its further growth.

 

Read Forex analytics:  Forex Forecast and recommendations for today 26.09.2018: EUR / USD - buy, GBP / USD - the flat, USD / JPY - Bank of Japan against the yen

 

Forex EURUSD forecast for today Vladislav Antonov Alpari

 

 

 

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