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Main » 2018 » July » 30 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 07.30.2018: Euro is set to strengthen
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 07.30.2018: Euro is set to strengthen


Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:

On Friday, July 27, trading on the dollar ended in the red. He fell on the entire market losing all positions, earned during the European session. Sales followed after the publication of US GDP for the II quarter.


These coincided with the forecast, so buyers started closing long dollar positions ahead of the weekend. It loads the principle of "buy expectations - sell the facts".  



I believe that after the release of the Fed's strong report will continue to gradually raise rates to prevent the economy from overheating.


Fig. 1 Dynamics of the dollar up on Friday


For the week almost all the major currencies showed a decline. The largest decline against the US dollar the euro (-0.56%). Behind him stood a New Zealander (-0.24%), the Australian dollar (-0.22%), Swiss franc (-0.15%) and British pound (-0.15%). Strengthening shown Canadian dollar (+ 0.65%) and Japanese Yen (+ 0.41%).


Fig. 2. Dynamics of the dollar at the end of the week


The published statistics in the United States:

The preliminary value of the index of US GDP for the II quarter of 2018 was 4.1% (forecast was 4.1%, previous 2.2%).

The final value of the index University of Michigan consumer sentiment in the US in July was 97.9 (forecast was 97.1, a preliminary value of 97.1).


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:00 Switzerland is to publish an index of leading economic indicators from the KOF July. The indicator has no effect on the market.

At 10:30 Britain will publish data on the change in net loans to individuals, in terms of consumer credit and the number of approved applications for a mortgage loan in June. This unit does not seem to impact on the market, so I ignore it.

At 12:00 the Eurozone will publish an index of consumer confidence index of business optimism in the industry, the index of sentiment in the economy, and the index of sentiment in the business community in July. Market participants are unlikely to pay attention to them. If only any sort of drivers for traffic will not be, can have an impact on the euro.

At 15:00 Germany will present the consumer price index for July. The only indicator that can affect the dynamics of the euro / dollar.

At 17:00 the US will be informed about the change in the volume of outstanding transactions on home sales in June.


Fig. All 3 graph EUR / USD


The current situation is EUR / USD:

During my two-week vacation the euro fell 28 points. We can say that nothing has changed in my absence. So I will not waste time to get acquainted with the previously published statistics and news.

Two weeks formed a sideways range of 0.93% or 109 points. Mid-range is at around 1.1682. At present, he will target level for evrobykov.

All the news that are listed above do not have a strong impact on the foreign exchange market, so he did not take them into account in its forecast today.

Observe the dynamics of yield of US bonds. There are risks that the 10-year-Lethke it will fall from 2.96% to 2.94%, which will cause a weakening of the US dollar and the strengthening of the euro. Crosses the euro traded all in positive territory, so the decrease in the yield US10Y able to appreciate the euro against the dollar to the upper limit of the corridor - 1.1755.

The key event of the week will be: index of business activity in China, the eurozone, Britain and the United States, a decision by the Bank of Japan interest rate, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the state of the labor market (NFP) in the US in July.


Euro Dollar EUR / USD forecast today Vladislav Antonov Alpari


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