Results of the last trading day:
On Wednesday, May 7, in the euro auction resulted in the growth. Active traders observed at the beginning of the European session. Splash volatility triggered the ECB's chief economist Peter Prat. He said that next week the members of the Governing Council to discuss the possibility of phasing out the program of purchases of bonds. The price has jumped to 1.1796. Session bullish trend supports cross pairs with the euro.
ECB's Weidmann representative also supported evrobykov. He said that inflation in the euro area gradually returns to the ECB target level, and the market expectations correspond to the completion of the program of quantitative easing of the ECB by the end of the year.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 09:00 Germany is to publish data on changes in the volume of industrial orders in April. This indicator is important for the euro. Response to it can be ambiguous. If he will make a good, above the forecast, the buyers of session trend will squeeze from it to the maximum. If orders will fall and will be lower than forecast, then the growth will slow down in prices.
09:45 France announced a change in the trade balance for April. It has no effect on the dynamics of the euro.
At 10:00 Switzerland Notify change of SNB reserves in foreign currency in May. No impact on the currency market.
At 10:30 UK will release the code to the Halifax House prices in May. Pound sensitive to this indicator, but can ignore it. See you need the general mood of the market to the dollar.
At 12:00 the Eurozone will declare the change in GDP for the 1st quarter. Not the interest of speculators, because the already completed the 2nd quarter.
At 15:30 the US will be informed about the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in May. After peyrosla not interesting.
At 17:30 in Canada will review the financial system by the Bank of Canada. An important event for the pound.
18:15 In a speech made by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz. It has a strong influence on the dynamics of the Canadian dollar.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
On Wednesday, two representatives of the ECB helped customers recover the price to 1.18. In Asia, the price is in a reversal region between the 112th and 135th degrees. The general weakening of the dollar and the increase in cross-pairs with the euro pushing the pair euro / dollar (EUR / USD) upwards. The current EUR / USD rate is 1.1803.
Between the price of EUR / USD and indicator AO have a bearish divergence. This is a bearish signal, but in practice, they do not work when the session trend caused by statements from representatives of the regulator, and geopolitics.
Hour period on EUR / USD shows a downward correction. I believe that as soon as the EUR / USD falls below 1.1790 again, the fall accelerated. Through it passes the trend line. Price is in the sales area (112-135), so consider the depreciation of the euro to 1.1710 / 20. On the way from sellers integrates two resistance: 1.1775 and 1.1752 (line lb, 45 oz.).
Important events in the calendar are, but neither can affect the dynamics of the euro / dollar cross rates through.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari