Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:
On Thursday, July 5, the euro trades in the growth at the level of 1.1689. The euro had a higher value of the index of industrial orders in Germany, as well as news from Bloomberg, which was published on Wednesday, July 4th. It was reported that some members of the ECB Governing Council of the Bank believe the rate hike at the end of 2019 is too late.
The general weakening of the US dollar the euro rebounded to the level of 1.1720, with the price of which EUR / USD corrected to 1.1673. The correction started after the release of positive statistics in the United States.
According to the minutes of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, the committee members are confident in the growth of the US economy and plans to further increase the interest rate.
- The number of applications for the grant of unemployment in the US for the week to 30.06 amounted to 231 thousand. (Forecast was 224 thousand., The previous value of 228 thousand.).
- index of business activity in the US services ISM of June amounted to 59.1 (forecast was 58.3, previous 58.6).
- index of business activity in the US services from Markit for June amounted to 56.5 (forecast was 56.5, previous 56.5).
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
- 09:45 France is to publish data on the change in the trade balance for May. Do not have an impact on the market.
- At 11:00 Switzerland will report on changes in reserves SNB foreign currency in June. These do not affect the market.
- At 10:30 Britain will present the house price index from the Halifax in June. In anticipation of the NFP will have no impact.
- At 15:30 the US and Canada announced changes to the trade balance for May, as well as the change in the unemployment rate and the number of employees in June. Also at this time there are data on new jobs in non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average workweek, and the proportion of the economically active population in June. NFP report has a strong short-term impact on the market.
- At 17:00 Canada will release PMI managers from Ivey in June.
- At 20:00 Baker Hughes to publish its weekly data on the number of active drilling rigs for the extraction of oil in the USA. Important for traders of the commodity currencies and oil.
The current situation is EUR / USD:
At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1705 against the review of the intraday high of 1.1715. Most of the crosses with the euro traded in positive territory. The dollar held in a green area only against the yen. Buyers are prepared to storm the area 1,1720-1,1730 to open its way to 1.1835. The activity is holding them back today's report on the US labor market, which will be released at 15:30 (gmt + 3)
After NFP market participants' attention will befall on the US trade war with China. Today, the United States must introduce tariffs on imports from China of $ 34 billion. Dollars. As soon as they take effect, China will introduce duties on American products by the same amount.
Volatility in the US session expected to be very high. Today it is necessary to monitor the protective asset yen, the Swiss franc and gold. If the NFP will be worse than forecast, then the absence of risk aversion the euro could soar to 1,1790 (U3).
If the NFP will be worse than forecast, against the background of an overall strengthening of the dollar likely to fall in EUR / USD to 1.1663. The larger the index deviate from the forecast, the greater the movement of the euro down. The report contains many records, so it is not known how traders react to each of them.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari