Results of the last trading day:
In the Monday, May 28, trading on the single currency ended lower. Price during the European session dropped to 1.1607. In the American session the volatility of the market has declined on the occasion of holidays in the US and Canada. Customers taking advantage of the holidays in the United States were able to stop the decline of prices and restore it to 1.1633.
The euro dived to 121 point to 1.1607, having lost all the morning gains, amid the worsening political situation in Italy. Investors reacted to the euro in sales, as the leader of the "5 stars" called for the impeachment of the president.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 11:00 the Eurozone will publish the M3 money supply data for April.
At 11:00 the Eurozone will present a report on private lending in April.
At 12:30 a speech made by members of the Board of the European Central Bank Yves Mersch.
At 16:00 the US will report on house price index from the S & P / CS for March
At 17:00 the US will publish the index of consumer confidence from the SV in May.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
On Monday, I expect to see the pair EUR / USD flat and make a great session trend. Since I did not expect such movements in the market are not included.
Surprises from politicians suddenly appear in the media, so technical analysis is powerless against their sentences. When Exchange affects geopolitics, it is not known where to stop the fall / increase in prices.
The quicker to resolve the political situation in Italy, the faster will get stronger euro. At least the price will be adjusted to 1.1800.
The fall of EUR / USD stopped in the area of 90-112 degrees. Currently the pair EUR / USD is in a corrective phase. According to the forecast forward EUR / USD correction to 1.1680 area. As uncertainty persists in Italy, the euro sellers at the event quickly will make a long position. Still more profitable to sell the euro trend after setbacks.
Since rollback d gfht EUR / USD from 1.1607 was a minor, in the beginning of the European session, the euro sellers can go to 112 degree. That area between 112 and 135 degrees works well to rebound. See the rebound on 23 May.
Not even had time to finish the review of the EUR / USD, both with the opening of the European session the sellers dropped the price to 1.1603. The yen, the Swiss franc and gold are traded in positive territory. This means that investors have begun to go into defensive assets. I'm out of the market until the situation becomes clearer. Again, sales of EUR / USD to make safer after correction. Because the euro falls 30 trading days, and the price may at any time turn sharply upward. On the forecast ascending triangle can not watch.
Daily Forecast EUR / USD pair Vladislav Antonov Alpari