Results of the last trading day:
On Wednesday, May 9, in the euro auction ended with a small loss. During the European session the euro weakened against the dollar to 1.1823. American support assisted growth yield US 10-year treasury bonds (US10Y) above 3.0%.
After reaching its lowest level since December 2017 Euro exchange rate adjusted to 1.1897. Correction of the dollar has caused the yield US10Y, which decreased from 3.015% to 2.99%. The inability to pass evrobykov trendline has led to depreciate to 1.1841.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
- 11:00, the euro zone will be released by the Economic Bulletin of the ECB.
- 11:30 Britain will publish data on changes in the volume of industrial production, output in the manufacturing industry, the balance of the balance of visible trade, and the volume of construction in March.
- 14:00 Bank of England will publish the decision on the interest rate and the amount of asset purchases. Also at this time the Bank of England released an inflation and the minutes of the meeting.
- 15:00 Britain will present the evaluation of changes in GDP from NIESR for April.
- 15:30 Canada will release the price index for new homes in March, and the US will present the consumer price index for April, and declare a change of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
- 17:30 Canada released survey from the Bank of Canada.
- 21:00 US is to publish a report on the budget for April.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
Today the activity of speculators in the foreign exchange market is to the Asian session. Most major currencies traded in positive territory against the dollar. Dollar sales traders reacted to yield US10Y reduction to 2.97%.
At the left a deep negative exchange rate New Zealand dollar after the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
The euro rebounded to 1.1875, and at the time of writing is 1.1866.
On Thursday, a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. It is expected that the regulator will keep the main rate at 0.5% and the volume of redemption in the amount of 435 billion pounds.
Although no change in the monetary policy of the Central Bank is not expected volatility for the pound is high. Participants of the market to make trading decisions will look at the distribution of votes according to the voting results, as well as the minutes of the meeting and the inflation letter.
As soon as the market will decrease the volatility of the news on the UK, it will rise again after the publication of inflation data from the US, which may shed light on the prospects of the Fed's monetary policy.
Yesterday, the index of industrial prices in the United States showed minimal growth, with the annual rate decreased. If the inflation report will reflect the slower growth in consumer prices, the dollar will start liquidation of long positions and a downward correction.
Given today's news, the euro sales is better to abstain, or to trade a minimum volume, since the price is at the trend line and have it go through the risks.
I reviewed the forecast decline to 1.1825, which is possible breakout of the trend line. price decline in the first half of the European session considered due to stochastic and downs NZD.
Buyers are already trying to go through the trend line. Do not forget about today's news, not to get hit by sharp price fluctuations. Observe the risks please.
The euro dollar EUR / USD forecast today Vladislav Antonov Alpari