Results of the last trading day:
In the Monday, April 24, trading in the US dollar resulted in the growth. Against the background of weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector of the euro area, as well as the overall strengthening of the dollar, supported by increasing the yield on 10-year Treasuries single currency fell from 1.2289 to 1.2185.
In addition to a long dollar market in the US session was supported by the favorable statistics on the PMI index and housing sales in the secondary market in the US. Performance exceeded market expectations. The dollar was advancing on all fronts, and declining crosses euro strengthened for a couple of pressure.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
- 11:00 Germany will publish the terms of the business environment from IFO indicator, an indicator of the current situation from the IFO, and the indicator of economic expectations from IFO for April.
- 11:30 Britain will publish the change in net borrowings of the public sector in March.
- 13:00 Britain will present the balance of industrial orders according to CBI in April.
- 16:00 Belgium will present the index business sentiment for April. Also at this time, the US will publish house price index for February.
- 17:00 US will release the indicator of consumer confidence index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in April, and also announced a change in our sales of new buildings in March.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
Reversal zone of the 112th and 135th degrees not resisted. Morning US10Y rise to 2.99% has left its mark on all the markets. Her approach to the psychological level of 3% has forced traders to monitor the debt market, as fast yield growth negatively affects the stock market. A flight of shares will trigger a chain reaction in other markets.
On day period breached trend line and the lower boundary of the triangle formation. Therefore, you should not stay too long in purchases.
On the morning of the Asian market participants played yesterday's events in the United States rate decline to 1.2185. From him the price jumped by 39 pips to 1.2224.
I in cycles, nothing has changed. New sales forward after the rollback. Just what will be a rollback is difficult to say. Sell after three days of declines to 215 points, do not want to. Sell, you will see a small plus sign and upward correction. I do not want to be in this situation.
Stochastic Oscillator is now in the sales area. The clock bearish trend. Most of the crosses with the euro traded in the black, so a drop to 1.22 considered. According to the forecast forward recovery rates of up to 45 t. - 1.2239. Closure of the day above 1.2250 will record a false breakdown triangle formation and reversal candle. It can work on a classic test of truth breakdown: the breakdown of the trend line - back line (1.2290). Support for 180 gr. - 1.2178.
It may leave the euro below the Asian low? Maybe because the broken trend line and on Thursday a meeting of the ECB. The question is, in which direction the media will disperse the course before Draghi's speech.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari
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