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Main » 2018 » May » 4 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 04.05.2018: NFP - the main event of the day
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 04.05.2018: NFP - the main event of the day


EUR / USD the outcome of the last trading day:

On Thursday, 3 May, the euro trading ended in positive territory. Euro to Dollar rose by 0.30% to 1.1987. Growth of quotations contributed to a general weakening of the US dollar, and a reduction in the yield of 10-year US government bonds.

In the American session the volatility in the foreign exchange market has increased. It has been controversial statistical data. In April, the index of business activity in the US service sector, which is calculated by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), was below expectations. Whereas production orders with the US trade balance was higher than predicted values. US trade balance narrowed to $ 49.00 billion,



Published US statistics:

index of business activity in the United States Institute of Management Service in April amounted to 56.8 (forecast was 58.1, previous 58.8).

manufacturing orders index March in U.S. was 1.6% (prediction was 1.3%, the previous value is revised from 1.2% to 1.6%).

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States amounted to 211 thousand. (Forecast was 225 thousand., The previous value of 209 thousand.)

The trade deficit in the US $ 49 billion (the forecast was $ 50 57.70


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

  •  9:45 France said about changing the balance of foreign trade in March.
  • C 10:15 to 11:00 will leave indexes of business activity in the services sector in April: France, Germany, the eurozone.
  •  12:00 euro zone will present data on changes in retail sales in March.
  •  15:30 US was to publish data on the change in the unemployment rate, the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector, the average hourly wage, the average length of the working week and the proportion of the economically active population in April.
  •  17:00 Canada will report on the index of business activity from the Ivey Managers for April.
  •  19:00 FOMC member will give a speech by William Dudley.
  •  20:00 US will Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production.
  •  22:00 will give a speech of FOMC members John Williams.



Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView

The fall of the euro has slowed in the background started in the US dollar correction. At hour period revealed a triangular formation, only the waves is not the classic triangle.

Today, the attention of traders focused on the April US labor market report. Indicator unpredictable, so the schedule without prediction. The range for the oscillations to 15:30 gmt + 3 is 155 points (1.1912 - 1.2067).


EURUSD Forecast for today Vladislav Antonov Alpari





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