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Main » 2018 » August » 3 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 03/08/2018: The market in anticipation of NFP
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 03/08/2018: The market in anticipation of NFP


Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:

On Thursday, August 2, at Euro bids ended lower. By the close of the day the euro fell against the dollar to 1.1582. The catalyst for the fall of the pair became the general strengthening of the US currency after the FOMC meeting and the sale of risky assets amid worries of trade relations between the US and China.

The yield on the US 10-year bond ruffled around 3% mark and fall at the moment is not going to. The US Treasury Department announced that it plans to increase the volume of borrowing in the bond market.



Published statistics in the United States:

factory orders index for June in the US was 0.7% (forecast was + 0.7%, previous 0.4%).

The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States amounted to 218 thousand. (Forecast was 220 thousand., The previous value of 2017 thousand.).


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:15 Switzerland is to release the consumer price index for July. No effect on the market.

From 10:50 11:30 come on indexes of business activity in the services sector in July in France, Germany, the euro zone and Britain. Before peyrolsom will have no impact on the major pairs.

At 12:00, the euro zone is to publish data on the change in the retail trade in June. It will have no impact.

At 15:30 the US and Canada said about changing the trade balance for June. At the same time, the US was to publish a report on the labor market: data on the change in the unemployment rate, the number of non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average workweek, and the proportion of the economically active population in July.

NFP has a strong impact on the market. Following a meeting of the FOMC, the response to it may be weak.

At 16:45 the US will publish PMI index for the services sector in July, and 17:00 - ISM index for the non-production sphere in July. Important indicators. Reaction to them will depend on the data NFP.

At 20:00 Baker Hughes to publish its weekly report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production.


Fig. All 3 graph EUR / USD


The current situation is EUR / USD:

From yesterday's review: "... Growth above 1.1705 are not considered, because there is a risk to go to 1.1615 ..."

My fears and reduced the risk of the transaction up to 0.25% were not in vain. Against the backdrop of widespread strengthening of the US dollar and Euro sales in the crosses, the pair dropped to 1.1582. Sellers were two support: 1.1640 and 1.1607. 

When mixed the dynamics of the dollar in Asian trade buyers are trying to develop an upward movement. Until 15:30 gmt + 3 correction is likely. Before peyrolsom (Non-Farm Payrolls. NFP) market in 80% of cases, is corrected or is trading in a narrow range.

Overview no forecast as to the NFP day I did not do. Display unpredictable and has a strong influence on the basic pair.

US Federal Reserve in its accompanying statement for the meeting of FOMC reported a strong labor market. If the report disappointed the market, the euro / dollar will return to 1.1665. If in the United States for July will create more than 193 thousand. New jobs in non-agricultural sector, the forward hitting the 157-th degree (1.1559). Key support is at 1.1510.

If we turn on the indicator vnmianie JSC (the scope of) the four declining base point to deep upward correction the pair. For me deep correction - rollback 50% (1.1664) from falling from 1.1746 to 1.1582 (164). 45th grade passes through 1.1639, 67 gr. - through 1.1663. 50% level coincides with 67 degrees. So what are waiting for NFP. Who out of the market, do not even go. Who in the market, I wish to go through the NFP, so as not knocked on foot.


Today, the forecast EUR / USD Vladislav Antonov Alpari


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