Results of the last trading day:
On Wednesday, May 2, in the euro auction ended in the red. For the May holidays the single currency slipped against the US dollar by 146 pips to 1.1938. Roller coasters were observed in the evening after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Following the results of the two-day meeting of the Committee of the US Federal Reserve Open Market (FOMC) decided to keep the key interest rate on federal funds in the range of 1.50% - 1.75%. The regulator said the inflation rate, but not signaled plans to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. I think this has caused a sharp rise in the euro / dollar pair to 1.2025, but the sellers were able to keep the defense around 1.2030 and a return rate under 1.20.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
- 11:30 UK will release PMI index for services in April.
- 12:00 euro zone will present the consumer price index for April and the producer price index for March.
- 15:00 ECB will deliver a speech member Victor Constancio.
- 15:30 Canada and the United States announced a change in the balance of foreign trade in March. US was to publish data on the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as changes in labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector, and changes in labor cost level in the 1st quarter. A speech made by members of the ECB Kerry.
- 16:45 US will release PMI for the services sector from Markit April.
- 17:00 US will present the index of business activity in the service sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) for April, and a report on changes in the volume of industrial orders for March.
- 19:00 from a speech made by the head of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
In Thursday, May 3, at auction in Asia in the leaders of growth is the Australian dollar. He has received support from the published positive Australian statistics. Behind him stretched the other currencies, triggering a corrective movement in the dollar.
At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1986 review. By yesterday's drop in price has corrected by 60%, and a minimum of 1.1938 - 45 gr. Bought headed to 1.2020 trendline. I forecast an intraday maximum of 1.2011.
Hour cycles indicate that the upward correction or sideways last until May 9. If we look at the daily and weekly TF, the price reached the support and correction is justified. After May 9 can see the new Euro sales and the beginning of a bear phase with the objectives of 1.1855 and 1.1710.
From the statistics it is worth paying attention to data on consumer and producer inflation in the euro area in April, as well as on business activity in the US service sector from the ISM. After the meeting, FOMC reaction to them today can not be.
Forex Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari