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Main » 2018 » July » 2 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 02/07/2018: geopolitics pressured euro
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 02/07/2018: geopolitics pressured euro


Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:

On Friday, June 29, the euro rose substantially against the US dollar. Demand for the euro rose after EU leaders reached an agreement on the issue of migration. Additional support for the currency was inflation data for the euro area and the general weakening of the US dollar. At closing, the euro / dollar closed at 1.1682. The growth of EUR / USD up 0.99%.



American statistics:

PMI Managers Association in Chicago in the US in June amounted to 64.1 (forecast was 60.0, previous 62.7).

The final value of the index University of Michigan consumer sentiment in the US in June amounted to 98.2 (forecast was 99.2, a preliminary value of 99.3).


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:15 of Switzerland said the change in retail sales for May. The report will have no impact on the market.

C 10:30 to 11:00 will leave indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector in June in Switzerland, France, Germany, the eurozone, Britain. The market will have an impact only statistics on Britain.  

At 12:00 the Eurozone will declare the change in the unemployment rate for May.  

At 16:45 US will publish the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in June. At 17:00 ISM manufacturing index will be released in June. Indices have an impact on the dollar in a strong deviation from the predicted values.



The current situation is EUR / USD:

Bidding opened lower on Monday, the euro against the background of an overall strengthening of the US currency. Apart from the dollar to the euro pressured euro crosses. The single currency was again under pressure due to political predryag.

At this time, the negative reaction of traders was the publication paper Rheinische Post in which he wrote that the CDU and CSU intend to hold another meeting to again discuss immigration agreement, which was concluded on Friday. Apparently someone is not satisfied with the migration policy.

In Asia, the euro fell from 1.1690 to 1.1637 (-53 n.). Friday's final day ended with a triangle and tonight the price came out of it. Before the weekend to enter a short position of 135 degrees it was too late, and in the morning the price is trading at 1.1655.

Correction EUR / USD 1.1690 down from the top was 45-five degrees. I think that the downward movement after the upward correction to continue. If the stretch Fibo on a downward wave from 1.1690 to 1.1637, the sale can be considered from the area 1,1657-1,1665 (38,2-50%).

At this hour (9:00 GMT + 3) EUR / USD at 1.1615 coincided balance and the trend line. They today are the supports. I expect breakout of the trend line at 11633 at 18:00 GMT + 3. Today is Monday, so the drop in EUR / USD could be against Friday and last until closing the US session.


Forecast of the EURUSD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari



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