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Main » 2018 » August » 1 » The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 01.08.2018: EUR - goal 1.1645
The euro dollar technical outlook EUR / USD today 01.08.2018: EUR - goal 1.1645


Results of the last trading day #EURUSD:

In the Tuesday, July 31, the euro trading ended in the red. In the American session the dollar played daily losses and went into the plus major currencies. He received support from positive statistics published in the United States and reports from Bloomberg. The euro fell from a peak reached 1.1748 to 1.1684.

Consumer spending and consumer confidence index in the US rose. PMI Managers Association in Chicago exceeded market expectations.



The US and China are trying to resume negotiations in order to relieve the tension in trade relations. The meeting of representatives of both countries is planned for this week.


Published statistics in the United States:

The consumer confidence index in the US in July amounted to 127.4 (forecast was 126.5, the previous value is revised from 126.4 to 127.1).

PMI Managers Association in Chicago in the US in July was 65.5 (forecast was 63.0, previous 64.1).

personal income indexes in the US +0.4%. personal spending index + 0.4%.


Planned statistics (GMT +3):

From 10:50 11:30 come on indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector by Markit for July in France, Germany, the euro zone and Britain. The market will have an impact only UK PMI.

At 15:15 the US will release the July report on the change in the number of employees from ADP. Expected surge in volatility, but does not have a strong impact on the dollar before the meeting of the FOMC.

At 16:45 the US will release the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in July, and at 17:00 - ISM manufacturing index for July. Relevance to the dollar. Before the announcement of the US Federal Reserve with a strong deviation from the predicted values ​​may affect the market.

At 17:30 US Department of Energy will present a weekly report on changes in stocks of oil according to the Ministry of Energy.

At 21:00 the Fed will announce interest rate decision and will cover the Fed's statement. Rate hike is not expected. Powell's press conference will not. Interest to traders and investors is the Fed's accompanying statement.


Fig. All 3 graph EUR / USD

The current situation is EUR / USD:

Expectations with test top of the range fully justified. Exchange rate rose to 1.1748 and returned to the balance line. At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1683 review. According to the forecast forward to a further weakening of the euro against the dollar to 1.1640 / 1.1645.

On Wednesday, the focus of traders is the FOMC meeting. At 21:00 (GMT + 3), the US Federal Reserve will announce a decision on interest rates. No one expects a rate hike. Powell's press conference will not. Everyone is waiting for the Fed's accompanying statement to see what to expect from the next meeting of the FOMC.

To European PMI indices do not pay attention. They have no effect on the market. But the British PMI index can seriously revive all the pairs with the pound. So during his exit follow the EUR / GBP cross. It is desirable that the EUR / USD went up to 1.1645 before the publication accompanying statement the US Federal Reserve


Forex EURUSD forecast today Vladislav Antonov Alpari




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