Results of the last trading day EUR / USD:
On Wednesday, May 1, trading in the EUR / USD pair closed lower. At the May holidays the day was very volatile as liquidity in the market was reduced because of the celebration of May 1 in Europe.
Before the announcement of the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates exchange rate EUR / USD pair rose to 1.1250 on the back of strong data on the euro zone GDP for the I quarter, as well as the inflation report in Germany in April. Then the fall in the dollar strengthened against the backdrop of a weak ISM index of business activity in the US in April, which was lower than forecast and the lowest since November 2016. Nervousness in anticipation of FOMC meeting results increased.
Following the meeting, the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates in the range of 2.25% -2.5% per annum. The decision to maintain the parameters of monetary policy was adopted unanimously by all the members of the FOMC. The next committee meeting is scheduled for June 18-19. The euro resumed its rise to 1.1265, from which fell by 77 pips to 1.1188.
The US dollar rose sharply throughout the market, responding to statements by Fed Chairman Powell that the Fed does not see a strong argument in favor of changing the rates in one direction or another.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 14:00 Bank of England will announce a decision on the basic interest rate and the planned amount of asset purchases, inflation report, a summary of the monetary policy.
At 14:30 will make a speech the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
At 15:30 the US will report on changes in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, at 17:00 US - to change the volume of industrial orders for March.
At 20:30 a speech made by members of the Board of the ECB Jens Weidmann.
The current situation is EUR / USD:
Drop in prices pair EUR / USD from 1.1265 reached 67 degrees. Sellers EUR / USD broke through the trend line at 1.1219 and then jumped out of a rising channel that was built from the highs. the euro is now trading in positive territory at 0.13% and is worth 1.1208.
What can we expect after the evening strengthening of the dollar?
There are two current scenario for the pair EUR / USD.
Scenario 1 EUR / USD : rollback EUR / USD rate up to 22 t. (1.1241) followed by drop below 67 c. to 1.1180. 22 gr. It is next to Lb. Rebound from it will be clear about what is expected of States. Currently the pair EUR / USD is growing without volume than strengthens the bearish sentiment on the market.
Scenario 2 EUR / USD : the slow recovery of quotations pair EUR / USD under the bottom of the channel in the direction of the line of the 45th degree. With the discovery of Europe, a slight decline in the euro, t. To. Stochastic is at the top. If the market will stand around 1.12 a few hours, then he played, and shoppers EUR / USD may continue to move to the level of 1.1230. Resistance stands carrying the line Lb.
1 is considered more likely scenario. Deep drop is not considered, because on April 18, formatted reversal formation for the future growth of EUR / USD above 1.13.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari