Results of the last trading day:
At Thursday, March 22, in the euro auction ended lower. During the European session the price falls to 1.2285. The pressure on the single currency came from the falling German yields, cross-country euro / pound and weak statistics in Germany and the euro zone.
Made from a session low of 1.2285 euro rebounded to 1.2341. The escalation of tension in trade relations between the US and China had a negative impact on quoted stock indices. And those, in turn, increased the demand for protective assets (the yen and franc).
President Donald Trump on Thursday signed a memorandum on trade measures against Beijing ($ 60 billion), to reduce the trade deficit between US and China, which is about 0.5 trillion dollars.
Published US statistics:
index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the United States by Markit in March was 55.7 (forecast was 56.0, previous 56.3)
index of business activity in the US services from Markit in March was 54.1 (forecast was 56.1, previous 56.3)
The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States amounted to 229 thousand. (Forecast was 225 thousand., The previous value of 226 thousand.)
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 15:00 Britain will present the quarterly bulletin of the Bank of England.
At 15:30 Canada will release the Consumer Price Index for February, and will report the change of volume of retail sales for January. Also at this time the United States will be informed about the change in orders for durable goods in February.
At 17:00 the US will declare the change in sales of new buildings in February.
At 21:00 will be released Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production in the United States.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
On Thursday, after the test of the trend line rate of the euro fell to 1.2285. He recovered from the price of 45-degrees to be 1.2341. Asian stocks have gone from the opening into the red zone, than support the demand for the yen and the franc.
In Asia, the dollar fell to all the major currencies. Given that the main cross-country races in the euro traded in positive territory, while Chinese stocks are in deep red, assume that in the first half of trading in Europe, the growth of quotations will continue.
According to my calculations, the euro exchange rate will reach 67 degrees of 1.2368. From him forward to depreciate to 1.2317. While such technical picture emerges. If the market situation will change, that's what I quickly write channel Telegram.
Vladislav Antonov Alpari