Results of the last trading day:
On Friday, March 16, trading in the euro / dollar finished lower. After the restoration of the price to 1.2336 it fell by 76 points to 1.2260. This was aided by positive statistics published in the United States, from which the dollar was supported.
Indices of industrial production and consumer confidence in Michigan exceeded market expectations. These are ignored with the real estate market. On the news in the United States the yield on 10-year bonds rose from 2.81% to a level of 2.859.
The preliminary value of the US University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for March amounted to 102.0 (forecast was 99.4, previous 99.7).
Industrial production index in the USA in February was 1.1% (prediction was 0.3%, the previous value of -0.3%).
The number of new homes in the US in February was 1.236 million. (Forecast was 1.290 mln., The previous value of 1.329 mln.).
The number of building permits in the US in February in millions. Was 1.298 million. (Forecast was 1.330 mln., The previous value of 1.396 mln.).
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 13:00 the Eurozone will declare the change in the balance of trade and the volume of construction in January.
At 14:00 the Bundesbank monthly report will be released in Germany.
16:40 In a speech made by members of FOMC Bostic.
At 21:00 a speech by the representative of the ECB Mersch.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
My expectations were completely justified by Friday. Pair corrected upwards, then decreased to 112-th degree. Due to cross with the euro correction was higher than the 22-th degree. Exceeding the level was low. Buyers do not even come down to the trendline.
Economic calendar for Monday is nearly empty. Attention traders focused on the results of the meeting the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, which begins on Tuesday. Market laid in the price increase of the main federal funds rate at 0.25%. So that after the announcement of FOMC decision and press conference, the new head of the US Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar.
I forecast for today turns sideways movement in the range Friday. Scenario to restore prices to 1,2297-1,2305 will continue in the fall to 135 degrees - 1.2246. Zone 112-135 degrees is a strong support, so out of it considering the upward corrective movement. After completion of the correction of waiting updates minimum.
Trader analyst Vladislav Antonov Alpari