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Main » 2018 » March » 9 » The euro dollar forex forecast pair EUR / USD on 09.03.2018: Before NFP a correction to 1.2330
The euro dollar forex forecast pair EUR / USD on 09.03.2018: Before NFP a correction to 1.2330


Results of the last trading day:

In the Thursday, March 8, trading on the currency pair EUR / USD finished lower. During the press conference, I do not M.Dragi and peyrolsa forecasts as volatility increased too, and that does not work.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept the base rate at the zero level. Margin rate was kept at 0.25%. Deposit rate remained at 0.4%.



ECB President Draghi announced an increase in the forecast for the growth rate of the euro area economy in 2018 from 2.3% to 2.4%. The 2019 forecast remained unchanged at 1.9%. The forecast for inflation in 2018 is left unchanged at 1.4% and in 2109 - reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%. Draghi said that the risks are balanced for growth. About an increase in purchases of bonds word.

EUR / USD reacted to the increase in the level of 1.2446, from which fell to 1.2295, including today's trading in Asia. This behavior can be attributed to traders forthcoming publication of US labor market report. Traders closed their long positions on the euro so as not to risk it.

Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:00 Germany will report on changes in industrial production and trade balance for January.

At 10:45 France will report on changes in the volume of industrial production in January.

At 12:30 Britain will declare the change of volume of industrial production and the volume of production in the manufacturing sector in January, as well as the visible trade balance in January and consumer inflation expectations for the 1st quarter.

At 16:00 UK will release data on the change in GDP from NIESR for February.

At 16:30 Canada will report on changes in the unemployment rate and the number of employed in February, as well as the capacity utilization rate for the 4th quarter. The US said the change in the unemployment rate, changes in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average weekly working hours and the proportion of the economically active population in February.

At 18:00 the US will be informed about the change in inventories at the wholesale warehouses.

At 21:00 will be released Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production in the United States.


Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView

Built new price levels Gann. Falling from 1.2446 was 112 degrees. The clock have a "double top", but believe me it does not mean anything. If the NFP report is released weak, the price easily within 30 minutes will block yesterday's fall.

NFP figure unpredictable, so pointless to rely on technical analysis. The report should look at the growth rate of average earnings in the US, which may affect the Fed's decision on interest rates and the profitability of US government bonds. Before publishing the report NFP a correction to 1.2330

Also keep in mind that the US president Donald Trump yesterday signed a decree on the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum. Fees will come into effect after 15 days. Japan intends to file a lawsuit in response to new duties. It will be followed elsewhere.

"I do not want to pay the tax - transfer their factory in the US, and the tax will not," - said Trump.


Vladislav Antonov Alpari



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