Results of the last trading day:
April 18 in the forex market, the EUR / USD closed slightly up at around 1.2373. The single currency has received strong support from the cross pairs EUR / GBP and EUR / Canadian. Sterling fell against the US dollar and the euro on the disappointing data on inflation in the UK in March. The Canadian dollar lost ground dollar and euro after the Bank of Canada's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.25%.
The decision coincided with market expectations. The negative reaction of the market participants was on the accompanying statement of the Central Bank, in which there were no hints of rising interest rates in the near future. It says that the regulator will take a cautious approach to the issue of raising them.
EUR / USD jumped from 1.2342 to a pair of 1.2397, and then passed into a correctional phase.
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 11:00 the euro zone is to publish data on the change in the balance of payments for February.
At 11:30 Britain will present a report on changes in retail sales in March.
At 15:30 the US will release its manufacturing index for April, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, as well as be informed of the change in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.
At 16:30 he will make a speech FOMC member Randall Kvarls.
At 17:00 the US will present the index of leading indicators for March.
At 19:30 he will make a speech, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Financial Stability John Cunliffe.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
Correction of 1.2336 from a minimum of 45-five degrees. Buyers met with resistance near 1.24. As a result, they had to retreat to the carrying line lb - 1,2375.
In Asia, the dollar is mixed dynamics. If a few hours ago crosses euro traded in positive territory, but now the EUR / GBP, EUR / Canadian, Euro / Aussie moved into the red zone. Those currencies that have strengthened against the US dollar, the euro depreciates them.
The market should balance itself after yesterday's fall rates of the British pound and the Canadian dollar. This means that a further decrease in cross euro / dollar may go down without re-recovery to the level of 1.2397. And it is updated.
Its vision of the market shown in the chart in terms of a projection line for 2 days. Trendline TR passes through 1.2364. The faster it will go clumsy, the more likely the price drop to 1.2300.
I should also warn of the wedge model. If it will be implemented on a general weakening of the dollar and the increasing cross with the euro, the euro will rise to 1.2427. There is nothing you can do. Macroeconomic statistics changes the mood of the market speculators and investors, and those in turn adjust their portfolios.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vladislav Antonov Alpari