Results of the last trading day:
In Thursday, February 1, trading in the euro / dollar in the growth. Due to Allied crosses the single currency managed to strengthen against the US dollar on the growing profitability of US bonds.
By the growth of quotations pushed his statements a member of the Governing Council of the ECB E.Novotny. He said that it is time to complete the bond purchase program and by September of her decision is taken.
ECB's Praet representative believes that because of the low inflation policy stimulus in the euro area is still needed. M.Dragi ECB has repeatedly said in their press conferences that interest rates in the euro area will remain low for a long time and QE will last as long as necessary. If necessary, the program will be extended or increased in volume.
- The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the week to 27.01 amounted to 230 thousand. (Forecast was 238 thousand., The previous value of 231 thousand.).
- index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US in January was 59.1 (forecast was 58.8, previous 59.7).
- construction cost index in the US +0.7%.
- index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US version of Markit 55.5 (forecast was 55.5, previous 55.5) ..
Planned statistics (GMT +3):
At 12:30 UK will release PMI index for the construction sector in January.
At 13:00 the Eurozone will present the producer price index for December.
At 16:30 the US will report on changes in the unemployment rate, the number of non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, average weekly working hours and the proportion of the economically active population in January.
At 18:00 the US will publish the consumer sentiment index from Reuters / Michigan in January, and will be informed about the change in volume production orders for December.
At 21:00 will be released Baker Hughes report on the number of active drilling rigs for oil production in the United States.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
When reaching the upper channel line "A-A" (1.2462) euro decreased to 1.2432. Carrying line (sma 55) made support. From her price is rushed to a level of 1.25. Growth stopped about 112 degrees and the upper channel line «BB».
We value not Nowotny, it is unlikely that the euro closed above 1.25. And it has helped customers to take advantageous positions before Friday peyrolsom. If the report NFP disappoint dollar bulls, the strengthening of the euro will continue. If not, fix evrobyki profit and temporarily join the evromedvedyam.
On Friday, February 2, the attention of all traders in the foreign exchange market focused on the employment in the non-agricultural sector in the US data. It is expected that 180 thousand. New jobs against 148 thousand was created in January. December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 17-year low of 4.1%.
On the day peyrosla because of the unpredictability index and high volatility in the market, I do not make predictions. News more significant TA. If anything, you can be guided on a weekly forecast, which I did on 26 January. As it is expected to reduce the pair to 1.2418.
Since in Asian trade the dollar was trading in the positive territory all major currencies, and the euro crosses are mixed, then the price of the forward sliding to 45th to degree 1.2467
Vladislav Antonov Alpari