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Main » 2018 » March » 1 » The euro dollar forecast EUR / USD at today 01.03.2018: EURO will remain under pressure
The euro dollar forecast EUR / USD at today 01.03.2018: EURO will remain under pressure


Results of the last trading day:

On Wednesday, February 28, trading in the euro ended lower. Including today's trading in Asia, the euro dropped to 1.2184. Against the backdrop of a rise in price of the US dollar depreciation of the euro would be stronger. It saved from the weakening euro / pound cross, which rose by 1% to 0.8869.

The pressure on the British pound had a publication of the draft output of Great Britain from the EU agreement. According to this document, the parties are still far from agreement on key issues, and this may lead to more stringent British EU exit conditions.

In addition to the overall strengthening of the dollar to the euro pressured reduction in the rate of inflation in the euro area, as well as the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Italy, which will be held March 4.





Published statistics:

The number of signed purchase agreements in U.S. homes -4.7% (forecast was + 0.4%, the previous value is revised from 0.5% to 0.0%).

index of business activity in Chicago 61.9 (forecast was 64.2, previous 65.7).

Adjusted value of GDP index in the USA for the IV quarter of 2017 was + 2.5% (forecast was 2.5%, the preliminary value of + 2.6%).

Planned statistics (GMT +3):

09:45 Switzerland is to publish data on changes in GDP for the 4th quarter.

From 11:15 to 12:30 will leave indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector in February in Switzerland, France, Germany, the euro zone and Britain.

At 12:30 UK reported changes in net loans to individuals, the number of approved applications for mortgage loans and consumer credit for January.

At 13:00 the euro zone is to publish data on the change in the unemployment rate in January.

At 16:30 Canada will report on changes in the balance of current account balance of payments for the 4th quarter and the US public with data on expenditures price index for personal consumption in January, to change the level of expenditures and incomes in January, and the number of initial applications for benefits for unemployment.

At 17:45 in the US will come out the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in February, and at 18:00 Scientific and production ISM index for February, a report on changes in the volume of the construction spending for January. Also at this time the planned speech of Fed Chairman George. Powell.

At 19:00 a speech by the representative of the US Fed's Dudley.

At 22:00 the US will publish its Beige Book Fed.



Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView

My expectations for the depreciation of the euro to the 135th degree justified. Price is not reached 3 points to the calculated level of 1.2181. I believe that today it will fall well below it. 

Now in Asian trade buyers are supported by the growing crossover with the euro. Cross the euro / pound is on the verge of falling. According to him overdue downward correction to 0.8823. It is unlikely that consumers will be able to keep the price at the level of 0.8870. And considering that in Asian trade the dollar was trading in the positive territory against other major currencies, the decline in cross EURUSD will cause a drop to 157 grams. - 1.2154.

Today is saturated at the news, so price fluctuations may be different from my expectations. At 18:00 (gmt + 3) is planned to be the speech of the Fed's George. Powell.


Trader analyst Alpari Vladislav Antonov 




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