Results of the last trading day:
In the Monday, June 4, 2018, trading in the forex for the euro (EUR / USD) the growth. "Bullish" optimism in the market has caused the Australian statistics. Americans restrain the ardor of "bulls" and returned to the EURUSD price level of 1.1744 to 1.1677 (-67 n.). The US dollar corrected against the backdrop of increasing the yield on 10-year US bonds.
Planned statistics (GMT + 3):
At 12:00 the Eurozone will declare the change in retail sales in April. I am sure that news traders did not even pay attention.
At 15:30 Canada will report changes in labor productivity for the I quarter. These do not affect the market.
At 16:45 the US will release the index of business activity in the services sector from Markit May, and at 17:00 - the index of business activity in the service sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) for May. Prior to the FOMC meeting US statistics becomes important for the market.
At 23:30 will be released weekly crude oil inventories according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). The report is important for traders of oil and commodity currencies. The report is published 1 day prior to the official US Department of Energy report. It causes short-term fluctuations in the market.
Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView
On Monday, the market was moving on his own script. I expected flat at 1.1680 until Tuesday. He moved up, although it was close to closing balance of the line below the level of 1.17.
Against the background of the return of the price to book Lb line on the hourly period was fixed false break of the trend line. Now this hour it passes through 1.1731.
On the chart, two scenarios, because it was unable to allocate from them mainly due to the uncertain situation in the crosses with the euro:
1) Technically, the ideal place to buy euros. The price of EUR / USD is near the trend line, which is drawn through 1.1519 and 1.1618 lows. Stochastic bottom turned upwards.
2) Strengthening the euro after falling to the level of 1.1663. There are several reasons: reduction of euro crosses, strengthening of the dollar in Asia, and formed a reversal intraday pricing model for Monday.
In connection with this increased downward risks for EUR / USD to break through the trend line and go to the level of 1.1663, and perhaps lower - up to 1.1636. There is already a need to look for the general mood of players on EUR / USD and the dynamics of yield of US bonds.
At present, the performance of Mario Draghi has been planned. I read that his performance was canceled. Just wanted to remind you that his performance will have a major impact on the currency market during the press conference after the ECB meeting.
Forex EURUSD forecast today Vladislav Antonov Alpari