Most of the market expects the Fed will raise rates in December - literally next week. Interestingly, the views of the business community on the question of expediency of increasing rate divided. Economists-theorists believe that everything is in order. But experts on Wall Street, those in the market for skin and feel the real situation is not so optimistic - based on AMarkets.
Pessimists believe that the US economy is far from a revival of post-crisis level. For example, the manufacturing sector is still stagnating. Below - a graphic chart from Torsten Sloka from Deutsche Bank.
The rest - the impact of the strong dollar and cheap oil on the S & P500 is much stronger than GDP. As a result, the US economy has a recession arrived without a place of general economic recession. Economists-theorists believe that the share of services in total jobs in the US labor market is 86%, while the share of the manufacturing sector - 14%. But people from the industry (and those with MBA - it is usually senior executives) believe that the share of services - it is only 32%, while the manufacturing sector - it is 68%.
S & P 500 earned much of the yield on corporate profits, which are derived from exports and energy segment.FED looks at the economy through the eyes of economic theorists (the left side of the graph). The opinion of the business community - it's right side. We should not forget that support for stock markets outside the red zone - the mission of America's power number one.