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The American industry is in recession
US manufacturing recession. In the middle of the week it was obtained fresh data on the dynamics of the industrial sector. Chicago PMI display L Compression in September, against all expectations of analysts - on materials AMarkets.
In its report, the client wrote TD Securities analysts, that now all 7 regional PMI index fell and are in the territory of the compression activity. Last time such a situation occurred in 2009 and 2001. In both cases, the economy was in recession. In addition, the unemployment rate rose to a level that was before the recession. Gain new rabmest does not exceed 200 thousand. Per month.
The dynamics of the industrial sector of the United States:
Manufacturing as a percentage of US GDP:
As economists say, the industry - a litmus test of the state of the US economy. Since last year promsektor US struggled with the global challenges the industry - drawdown in commodity prices, a strong dollar, which is bad for exports, weakening global demand and others. US exports of manufactured goods is under particular pressure and causes maximum anxiety.
Analysts at TD sums up the situation this way: America is about to plunge into recession. The model predicts the probability of the company to such an outcome at the level of 16% in the interval 6 months.
The manufacturing sector - about 12% of the US GDP.
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