The US dollar was in demand at the beginning of the ensuing week. During the Asian session on Monday, November 23, the dollar index DXY ICE noted at a maximum in April 2015 - the level of 99.977. The largest decline among the major currencies against the dollar seen in the Japanese yen and the British pound - about 0.3%. Even more markedly reduced the Australian dollar, which is not included in the calculation of the dollar index. The drop is about 0.9%.Euro to 11:00 MSK also dropped to a mark of 1.0615, showing at least the Asian level 1.0600.
The reason for the growth of the dollar was the opinion of the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard, who said he expected the relatively fast growth of inflation to the target level of 2% until the end of 2016. the stabilization of oil prices. The closer the date of the December Fed meeting, which can be the starting point for the cycle of normalization of monetary conditions in the US, the market is more sensitive to the statements of the officials of the American regulator.
Despite the growing interest in the dollar, the main currency pairs during the ensuing week will be traded within the existing ranges. From Thursday, November 26 Activity in the foreign exchange market may be reduced because of holidays in the United States. Catalysts of short pulses in Forex may provide data on US GDP for the III quarter, housing data on personal spending consumers. If there is a significant deviation from the forecast estimates, the US dollar index DXY ICE, most likely, will not overcome the psychological level of 100 points.
In the European session will be published data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of key European economies and the euro zone as a whole. According to forecasts, these figures reflect the recovery process in Europe, but its rate will not be sufficient to achieve the required rate of growth of inflation.Against this background, it is increasing the likelihood that at the December meeting of the ECB may extend the measures of monetary stimulus. Expectation of steps from the regulator will put pressure on the euro. The most probable range of the euro in the first half of the week will be 1.0600 -1.0750.
Alexander Egorov, an analyst Teletreyd