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Main » 2016 » March » 1 » Technical outlook on the foreign exchange market on 02/03/2016 Forex Alpha
Technical outlook on the foreign exchange market on 02/03/2016 Forex Alpha

On Tuesday, the world markets began to reign interest in risky assets. Stock markets all over the place grew, oil at the moment exceed the level of $ 37, and the data on business activity in the manufacturing sector the largest countries in the world as a whole outlined favorable picture. At the same time the growth of the index did not prevent another disappointment from China, where the manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest since 2009 value at 49. Not scared off investors and the news that the British bank Barclays closes African division due to increased losses and reduced profits.




 It seems that the markets are still digest solution's Bank of China cut reserve requirements for banks, adopted on Monday. Against the background of the main outsider sentiment was the Japanese yen, which lost the day before scored points against the Dollar. The euro was maloaktiven, but remained under pressure, and the pound showed a positive trend in tandem with other risk assets, despite the positive data flow from the US, the dollar strengthened.

According to at Markit, business activity in the US manufacturing sector rose to 51.3 from 51.0 previously, while the PMI ISM rose to 49.5 against the forecast of 48.5 and the previous value of 48.2. Despite the fact that the figure was much higher than expected, the index remains below mark of 50 points separating growth from the recession, so the dollar optimism was limited.

Forecast EURUSD: The pair has traded in a relatively close range, and not daring to return to the level of 1.09.Couple updated 1-month low at 1.0833 level in the absence of interest in safe-haven. At the same time the euro was unable to gain a foothold on positive economic data from the euro zone, where the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in August 2011 at 10.3% compared to the forecast and the previous value of 10.4%. Meanwhile, the index of business activity in manufacturing rose to 51.2 from 51.0. Apparently, after the release of consumer price deflation zone market finally decided on expectations about the upcoming ECB meeting, so the common currency remained indifferent to fresh figures. During the week, the pair may continue to incur losses on the growth of the stock market in anticipation of the ECB policy easing. By the way, Mario Draghi confirmed that the decision will be made ​​taking into account the increased downside risks to the economic outlook and said that the bank is not limited to a set of instruments to achieve its mandate. After a disappointing inflation figures should expect a decrease in retail sales in the region, the report on which is stated on Thursday.


GBPUSD Forecast: Despite the fact that the predominant interest in the dollar, the GBPUSD strenuous efforts were made ​​in the foreign exchange market to continue recovery. On the side of "British" played the purchase of risky assets, rise in price of oil and some easing of concerns about the UK exit from the EU. As the barriers to growth made ​​statistics. If the United States have shown decent results, the British continued to file alarms indicating the conditions of application of stimulus measures by the Bank of England. PMI in manufacturing fell sharply to 50.8 from 52.9 versus the expected 52.2. In response to the release of the pound dropped to lows near 1.39, but soon recovered, finding solace in the fact that the light stayed on positive territory (above 50).Despite the "fortitude", quotes are still unable to return beyond the level of 1.40 - a couple just in the moment peaked 1.4017, after spending most of the trades under the psychological mark. For sure the break of this level will require weakening of the dollar. Nevertheless, GBPUSD closed trading in positive territory, recovering from lows just above $ 1.39.


Forecast USDJPY: The pair has made ​​great strides, rising to the level of 112.65 psychological level of 114.00.As mentioned above, the yen has suffered the greatest losses in the face of strong growth in the stock markets.This factor, coupled with the strengthening of the dollar helped the pair to recover from the collapse of the previous day. Despite the fact that the costs could climb to nearly two-week high just above 114.00, generally pair remains under downward pressure. For a more impressive and long-lasting change of sentiment in the pair USDJPY need a stable positive dynamics of equity assets. Perhaps the quotes will continue to rise on expectations of ECB policy easing.

Today promises to be poor on economic developments. In the euro area declared data on producer prices, Britain will publish the index of business activity in the construction sector, and the US will present a report on employment from ADP, ISM index of New York, and has traditionally attract the attention of recent data on oil reserves in the country by the Ministry of Energy.


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