2018 turned out to be not the best year for the single currency. On 25 December 2018 the euro fell against the US dollar by 5.4% to 1.1399. Brexit, a fourfold increase in the US Fed rates and trade wars have had a negative impact on the global foreign exchange market.
Also, the position of the European currency in many respects depend on the situation in the European Union. Political or economic problems in one of the countries entailed a rise in yields on 10-year bonds and the depreciation of the euro. These are all factors will have an impact in 2019. Resolving problems in France and Italy will have a positive impact on the euro.
Given that the market players in the second half of 2019 are expected from the ECB was the first rate hike, as well as slowing down the cycle of rate hikes by the US regulator, then the euro will be a good chance to win back the losses incurred in 2018.
In favor of the euro and growth are the technical factors. On the monthly chart, the euro / dollar has corrected by 61.8% to growth for 2017. Based on the cyclical analysis of the EUR / USD is expected to recover to 1.2373 by 1 June. Since June will fall in EURUSD before the end of the year. I believe that 2019 will be something similar to the 2016 year.
Fig. 1: Monthly TF, the euro / dollar
If we talk about the value of the euro in 2019, the position of the European currency is largely dependent on the situation in the European Union. Political or economic problems in one of the countries entail the fall of the euro on the world market.
Experts political influence on the quotation of the euro / dollar in 2019 will, as ever, is strong. If the US dollar will be the master of the foreign policy decisions and measures taken by the US Federal Reserve, the fate of the European currency will determine the status of the leading European countries: France, Germany, Italy.
Strategy-2019, forecasts EURUSD Vladislav Antonov Alpari