Increasing n rotsentnoy rates at the December Fed meeting is almost completed fact, talking about it is not only the market participants, traders, experts, analysts. But the Fed members who openly declare that there is no reason to delay raising, signaled the possibility of a rate hike. So far, no member of the Fed is not said that it makes sense to transfer the increase in interest rates for the next year. The Fed is of the opinion that further tightening will take place restrained pace.
But the chief economist at Standard Chartered in London Marios Marateftis said after the rate increase in 2015, in 2016 the Fed will lower rates. According to experts, the US economy is not yet ready to raise interest rates and very "vulnerable", so in the next year Yellen will go back down.
It is worth noting that the Bank completely opposite opinions and forecasts, and market participants and analysts interviewed, so according to the consensus forecast by the end of next year the rate should reach 1.25%.
Analysts expect a further increase in interest rates will occur smoothly, they believe it is likely that the first rate will reach 0.75%, and then decreased to 0.5%, but in general, it will be gradual increase. But Marateftis different opinion.
Bank forecasts the US economy very different from the consensus. Thus, the bank's experts believe the maximum rate of US economic growth reached in 2014, and at the end the following GDP growth of just 1.6%, while the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
At Standard Chartered believe that in the future American consumer spending will fall, car sales may remain at the current level, inflation is not expected. The bank noted that the pace of job creation will fall to 100 thousand per month. Despite the fact that the opinion of the bank opposite to other opinions, it is the place to be. It has been repeatedly observed that consensus is excessively optimistic.
If the forecast bank employee confirmed, and after raising the Fed in 2015, decreased in 2016, it will join the list of central banks of developed countries, which went to the tightening of monetary policy, and the following year passed before.
This situation has already taken place in the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Australia, Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Sweden.
According to the materials WELTRADE