Since 1928, US stocks quite correctly predict the future outcome of the US presidential election - based on AMarkets.
Roughly speaking, the dynamics of securities is possible to judge who wins - the current party or political rival. In 19 of 22 cases, the predictions came true (Strategas Research Partners data) - to exchange market is a very high accuracy of the forecast. If the shares are rising for several months before the election - will win the current leader (as in 86% of all historical episodes). S & P 500 Index hits record - then Hillary Clinton should rejoice in anticipation of victory. However, still a long way to November. A lot can still change. And by the way, the chances of Republicans and Trump grew. So, since November probability that Trump will win almost doubled to a value of 33%. Interestingly, the correlation between the dynamics of the probability of a stock market is very low - less than 10%. Many experts say that the predictive metric S & P500 is outdated and can no longer have anything to show. Especially considering the fact that the game is evil - the market is growing largely due to the efforts of monetary and Fed activity index companies (volume of repurchase impressive).