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Main » 2016 » February » 2 » Russia will be the main driver for oil in 2016
Russia will be the main driver for oil in 2016

Producers of "black gold" going through hard times, feeling the pressure of low prices, low demand and excess supply - based on AMarkets.




Analytical Team RBC Capital Markets suggested that the main driving force in the oil market in 2016 - is Russia. To begin with the experts suggest to look at the schedule of budget revenues and expenditures of oil "king" - Saudi Arabia.


As can be seen from the graph, Arabia has a hard time. At the start of 2016 - things are also not the best way.For Russia too, the times are not the most prosperous. It would seem that all could save coordinated production cuts. OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri appealed to all countries (not just OPEC) the proposal - to join forces to make the raw materials go up. In fact, nobody is going to reduce production. However, Russia and Arabia, as the experts say, some kind of negotiating process allegedly present.

The signals, which draws the attention of RBC Capital Markets:

* Putin recently held a series of meetings with the de factor leader of the Kingdom - Prince Mohamed Bin Salman on economic and security matters.

* Putin and Salman signed an $ 10-mlnoe economic agreement in the past year (the sum, though funny, of course).

* The Saudis have expressed interest in the purchase of Russian weapons.

* It is believed that, despite the fact that Russia and Arabia on different sides of the barricades - countries can find common ground and agree. Down to work together to overthrow the Assad regime (however, this is likely a fiction).

In any case, whatever it was already clear to everyone that the market is extremely sensitive to any signs of attention of Russian leaders to cooperate with OPEC. It reacts even hints - Oil jumped 8% after Reuters reported that Alexander Novak just mentioned the possibility of a meeting between the OPEC-countries and other players on the subject of oil and OPEC's offer to convene a global reduction in production.

Funny moment in all of this assumption RBC Capital Markets - skvozyaschaya secret hope of the Western world that the Russian oil and colleagues - Asian countries - will be able to save the world economy. Hope goes hand in hand with hatred. To one another does not seem to interfere.

US oil reserves (SPR) to 97.5% completed (as of August 2015). America, of course, it would not hurt to buy a little oil - more oil than America buys, the harder it is to live in Russia. However, America has its own economic realities, not the easiest from which it is impossible to ignore.

Returning to Russia, and Saudi Arabia, recall the story - until February 2002, Russia promised the Saudis to cut production, and did not do so and was able to pull market share from Arabia. Probably Arabia is afraid of a repetition of the scenario. Any agreements between the two countries may be a formality, which does not mean anything and nothing says.

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