The dynamics of exchange on October 1 corresponds to the classic return of risk appetite. This is due to both political and economic factors. The active joint efforts of the leading countries against militants in Syria allow sentiment to reduce the danger emanating from this region. On the other hand, the economic risks posed by China, a few down, what they say today's data on business activity. The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 p. Against 49.7 a month earlier. And although it below "Watershed" in 50 points, which separates pessimism from optimism, important in its positive trend. But the mood in the service sector even higher -53.4 p.
In the wake of returning risk appetite rising stocks. On the first day of October, Shanghai Composite strengthened by 0.5%. Nikkei - to% 1.92, S & P 500 - by 1.91%. The indicator of fear - the VIX index fell by 8.7% to around 24.5 n.
Probably, the positive mood of the market to continue for now. The dollar index at the level of 96.48 is committed to our goal of 97 designated optimism and gives excellent access data on employment in September from A DP 200 ths. To 194 thousand. And a month earlier forecast of 186 thousand.
The growth in the dollar may be limited already occurred movement and the traditional caution of investors on the eve of tomorrow's nonfarma.
Attention today will attract a variety of evidence of business activity in the US, the UK, the euro zone and Germany.In addition, the Fed acts as a member of D.Uilyams, speech, which has recently been cautiously hawkish.
For the main currency pair euro / dollar reduction of "fear" and, accordingly, decline in demand for euros is accompanied by positive US. This leads to the resumption of pressure on the euro and the movement of the pair to award us yesterday 1.1130 support area. But the zone did not succumb to pressure, "bears", and correction may lead the pair to 1.1190 -1.1210. In turn, the penetration 1,1130-1,1115 and consolidation below it will give an opportunity to go to 1.1050.
Chinese data is most exposed to the Australian dollar as the currency of the country that are closely related to China.In addition, at the Australia today released a strong index of business activity in the manufacturing sector - 52.1 against the previous 51.7. The pair AUD / USD is against this background strengthened to 0.7082. However, at the turn 0,71-0,7115 strong resistance is likely to stop the correction. Hence it makes sense to consider the entrance area in short positions with the targets of the decline to 0.6940.
Chart EUR / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market