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Main » 2016 » July » 25 » Review of foreign exchange markets, the ruble weakened against the background of instability in Europe and the correction of the oil market
14:35
Review of foreign exchange markets, the ruble weakened against the background of instability in Europe and the correction of the oil market

 

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World currency markets are still in a state of high nervous tension. Europe has not had time to recover from the terrorist attack in Nice as it was rocked by a series of terrorist attacks in Germany last week, improved single-criminals. Of course, after such events the European currency lihor Aditi and investors shifted to the US dollar.

 

 

The oil market last week, lost all of the growth of last week, despite the fact that the market is not the worst news came during the week. So, commercial US crude stocks fell by 2.34 million barrels in the week, although the market is expected to decline only to 2.1 million barrels. However, according to the report oilfield services company Baker Hughes, the number of record of active oil platforms increased by 105 units last week, up to 462 units, which means the restoration of production in the US shale oil. On this news barrel of Brent on Friday fell by 0.8%, falling below $ 46 a barrel. However, the sharp collapse did not happen, because the recovery of shale oil at around $ 50 per barrel was relatively predictable.

 

Russian ruble against the backdrop of falling oil was not kept at the height reached last week, and fell against the dollar by 3.2%, to 64.735, while the euro fell 2.1% to 70.915. Statements by the President and the Russian government that the strong ruble disadvantageous to the Russian economy, only added fuel to the fire of correction that could last and this week.

 

Despite the fact that in the United States last week, a particularly significant for the foreign exchange market data does not go, the dollar continued to strengthen against the euro and other European currencies. The dollar rose against the euro by 0.9%, to 1,097, and the British pound - by 1.1%, to 1.31 dollars per pound. However, Asian currencies (Japanese yen and Chinese yuan) could give the dollar slight resistance, and the Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar during the week by 0.7% and by 0.4% after a long period of falling increased the yuan.

 

The European Central Bank on 21 July left the interest rate unchanged at the zero level, and the rate on deposits - is also unchanged at the level of -0.4%. In comments to the decision of the ECB President Mario Draghi said that the reason for the preservation of rates at the same level is the need to continue the quantitative easing policy. According to ECB estimates, the rate of the euro zone economy in the second quarter proved to be slower than in the first quarter, and Brexit creates long-term risks for the European economy. The news was negative for the euro, and the terrorist attacks in Germany has only added to investor pessimism.

 

In the UK, inflation data released in June. In annual terms, the consumer price index rose by 0.5%, being better than market expectations (0.4%) and growth in May year on year (0.3%). Data on unemployment for May were also better than market expectations (4.9% of the population, although the market is expected that unemployment will remain at April's level, amounting to 5% of the population). But retail sales in June grew by only 4.3% year on year, were worse than expected (+ 5%), and retail sales have decreased by May to 0.9% in June, while the market expected decrease only by 0.6% and in April, sales grew strongly. However, currency traders ignored positive data from the UK, as they are now more concerned with issues of instability in Europe and the question of when Britain legally launch of the EU exit procedure.

 

In Japan, the trade balance for June surpassed the expectations of the market, rising to the level of 693 billion yen, compared with a negative value in May. Volumes of export and import in Japan decreased, compared with the May values ​​in June, but was better than market expectations. The data had a positive impact on the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar.

 

And in China, the People's Bank resumed operation repo China to support the exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar. According to China's financial regulator, the stabilization of the national currency of the PRC has been invested about $ 4.5 billion. This policy has caused the growth of the yuan against the dollar, however, it appears to be the People's Bank of China will not be much to strengthen the yuan, to ensure greater competitiveness of Chinese exports .

 

Calendar of events this week


Wednesday, July 27 - UK GDP data for the second quarter, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (21:00 MSK).


Thursday, July 28 - data on unemployment and inflation in Germany in July.


Friday, July 29 - Bank of Japan interest rate decision (4:00 MSK), data on unemployment and retail sales in Japan in June, inflation in Japan in July, the Bank of Russia on the key rate decision (13:30 MSK), data inflation and unemployment in the EU in July, data on US GDP for the second quarter.

 

Forecast

We expect that this week the euro / dollar will fluctuate at levels 1,09-1,104. GBP / USD this week is likely to trade within in 1,3-1,325. This week the ruble against the dollar in the corridor protorguetsya 63-65,5, and the euro - at the level of 69,9-71,2 rubles.

 

 

A source

 

 

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