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Main » 2015 » October » 6 » Rally commodity currencies: predictions come true
Rally commodity currencies: predictions come true

Appetite comes with eating. This we know. The same can be said about the appetite for risk. "Food" goes full swing. The market is happy postponement percent increase from the FOMC, which makes the extension of the period of cheap money. China is sleeping in their holidays and do not interfere with peace. As oil production declines and have the desire to exporting countries, including Russia, for talks on coordination of production. Operations in Syria on the one hand, far from major oil communication, on the other hand, undermine the power of LIH, alarming investors. Ukrainian conflict has stabilized, there is a diversion of arms.

That optimism reigns in the markets since the beginning of the week. This is evidenced by the fear of falling index VIX - falling to 19.5 n., And even techniques he hit the previous low of 20.1 is close to zones of tranquility 15-16 n.

In such a wave, as we suggested yesterday, the momentum of getting the commodity currencies as the risk-yielding assets. Forecasts about reaching pair AUD / USD 0,7110-0,7160 zone correction (maximum movement was just Such a movement was stimulated by today's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain a constant interest rate. Now, in achieving these levels involves finding in a flat with a range 0,7080-0,7160. Prior to joining the new drivers. But in general, likely resumption of downtrend with the objectives 0,6930-0,70.

In other commodity currencies, do not get a boost from its Central Bank, consider correction unfinished. If the mood of the market in relation to the risk does not change, then the pair NZD / USD remain relevant corrective purpose 0,6560-0,66. In general, the main trend after a retracement and likely outset speaker will focus on 0,64-0,6450.

Similarly, for the Canadian dollar to the US may turn around the trend of growth from 1.3020 -1.3070.Canadians greater impact oil prices, especially WTI. Therefore, maintaining high quotes black gold supported the currency. Now on WTI has a strong resistance zone at 47,1-47,7 Local support - 45.5 - 46.3, it may come at the price of natural correction.

Today the interest rate will be in US oil inventories according to the Institute API, and on Wednesday - according to official data of the Ministry of Energy. These data may affect motion described raw currency.



Chart AUD / USD H4: 






Mark Goikhman


Analyst  TeleTrade


The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market 

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