In a client note (the end of last week) Damien Kurvalin, Goldman Sachs, has suggested that the balance in the oil market will not recover before the 4th quarter of 2016 or later - in materials AMarkets.
So far, the volume of oil produced by OPEC is 31.8 million barrels per day. The forecast from Goldman - even OPEC will increase production of raw materials to 31.8 million. It is not obvious that the market itself can rebalance the excess raw materials in the market. Accordingly, the prices will fall further. Especially against the background of expectations of warm winter - t. E. Oversupply is not going anywhere and it's roominess with limited storage.
The dynamics of growth stocks over the years:
It is necessary to wait that prices for storage of oil will rise in the coming months (oil tankers) and approached the level of $ 20 per barrel in the last month. In October, the cost of daily rent a tanker jumped to $ 108 thousand. From $ 65-70 thousand. In the summer of the same year.
The forecast by Goldman oil price - $ 40 a barrel in the coming months. If you take a period of 6 months or more, from the current market price of Goldman predicts, in general, minus 50%.
PS It's funny that those people who, it seems, recently gave the forecast on oil at $ 200 a barrel.