The most traded pair even before the Fed rate hike will rise, this trend is visible now. The resistance level was 1.15 (this is the level worked throughout 2015), and the level of support will stop at 1.10.
Then, in 2016, fluctuations in the pair will depend on the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. If they are multidirectional (Fed tightening and softening of the ECB), as we saw in November and December 2015, the pair will fall.
Until the Fed's rate hike will be the pair sideways or slightly down, but after the rate hike and the comments of head FRS the pair will fall, probably will drop to the level of support in 2015 - 0.9035. Strong fall will be until the end of 2015, due to the fact that most investors will take profits and to direct their investments in Swiss banks. Next slight decrease in the following information to the Fed to change rates.
The pair will decline to 1,28-1,30 decline accelerated in the event of rising oil prices. If oil prices drop to USD 25 per barrel of WTI, the pair may reach the level of 1.4 and then fluctuate in the corridor of 1.35-1.40.
Most likely, even for 1 day before the Fed rate hike couple will gradually decline to the support level 118.50. The Japanese are likely to be selling large amounts of money in dollars to support the development of its own economy and investment in other countries. This will lead to the fall of the pair USDJPY.
Cost couples will depend heavily on oil prices. If the WTI crude oil falls to 30 dollars per barrel, the dollar will be 74-75 rubles. In the case of oil prices, which should not occur before the end of the 1st half of 2016, the ruble will grow. Also, the strengthening of the ruble will help to cancel or mitigate the economic sanctions and the weakening of the LIH (terrorist organization banned in Russia) in the case of a successful military operation by Russian troops in Syria.
Review of the cost of oil at the end of 2015 - the first half of 2016
12 December 2015 came out positive data on the Chinese economy. In this regard, at the beginning of the week is expected to rebound the price of WTI crude oil to the level of 37,5 USD per barrel, it will be a resistance level.
Further, following the bearish trend of the market, oil is likely to once again be falling, reaching a level of support in the USD 33 per barrel before the end of the year. This is the minimum level of prices for WTI crude oil during the economic crisis of 2008.
In 2016, after the lifting of the sanctions and to market the oil of Iran, oil prices will continue to decline to the lowest since 2002, the level of support in the $ 20 per barrel. How long this oil price will not last, most likely, will be held an extraordinary meeting of OPEC on which measures will be taken to reduce production. Then follow the price increase of oil, which at the end of the 1st half of 2016 will cost around 40-50 USD per barrel.
Drop of oil will also contribute to the warm winter.