Recently, the prices of oil and the situation around the summit in Doha is not just lazy writing. Subject oil on the one hand, a truly crucial for the world economy and politics, on the other hand, it seems easier to understand than the nuances of interaction tricky financial instruments, and therefore more in demand among the general public, and therefore in writing fraternity.Everyone, almost without risk, can feel like a strategist. And I can not avoid the temptation.
The finale of the play "Freeze production" approaches. Consider the options.
First you need to figure out where prices may seek in principle.
For example, the lower boundary was designated 20/01/16 - 27 $ / b.
Where the top? In order not to tread on very very shaky ground predictions are limited in their medium term forecasts - up to the US elections. Growth-oriented up to 100 $ / b and above, of course, possible, but not in reality.
Recently the head of the Ministry of Energy A.Novak stated that "the price of $ 50 per barrel would be arranged in the long run consumers and exporters."
Given that devaluation actually halve the cost of foreign currency of the Russian oil industry, and import substitution efforts have to give up part of the imported equipment and technology for the benefit of domestic counterparts, this can be believed. This also means that when the level of oil prices marked the industry is not interested in the strengthening of the ruble more than 60 p / $. Given the industry's weight in tax revenues in the budget, there is no doubt that it will take into account the desire of power.
It is also evident that this statement takes into account the interests of Saudi Arabia, unleashed a price war with the shale oil in order to preserve market share. Estimates of production profitability threshold in shale projects vary widely from 70 to 20 $ / b, but the consensus forecast in the main volume of the wells at the current level of technology development, close to the $ 40-50 / b.
Low prices put pressure not only on the shale oil production in the United States, but also in the financial and insurance companies, ensure the development of the industry. Also, the closure of a number of projects increases unemployment. This is a negative factor for the US economy.
On the other hand, the increase in oil prices will support America's geopolitical opponents and weaken the effect of the existing sanctions against Russia and Iran.
Strengthening the last positions affect US interests in the strategically important region of the Middle East.Reincarnation Syria with Assad, the game Saudis and Qatar, the Kurdish issue, growing imbalance in Turkey's policy, migrant flows and amorphousness of Europe - all of these challenges require the United States to consolidate the efforts of those whom they would like to introduce the world's outcasts.
Failure in this party would undermine America's credibility as a world leader, which will inevitably impact on the bond market and the dollar exchange rate. Therefore, it is safe to assume that the internal problems of the oil shale industry will be sacrificed to political expediency.
This means that the price of oil in the foreseeable future will not exceed 50-55 at average $ 40-45 / b. Thus emerges the political and economic compromise between the major world players.
Let's specify the upper limit of the corridor of the future of oil prices. In her claim several levels.
The level of $ 42.4 / b reached. This is followed by 46.4; 50.4 and 54 $ / b. Last looks better, because has a history: advocated resistance level at 04.09 to 11.08.
Then it can be assumed that the oil is included in sideways at least several months in the passage 54 - $ 27 / b.It is also likely that most of the time quotes hold the top of the range. On the role of a "watershed" in the channel claimed levels of 37.3 or 36 $ / b. At the same time the support of 37.3 coincides with the correction of 61.8% fib of the projected top of the channel (54 $ / b). Accordingly, I have placed the "Divide line" here.
If the ideas are correct, the players through the prices should demarcate the future canal, and in this sense the movement to the north looks more logical. But we have not yet seen a strong incentive to leap up. Possible "freeze" and the related questionable price control mechanisms have already played by speculators. This level of 42.4. For example, in the euphoria of the signing of the Declaration of Doha will be able to overclock the price up to 46, but most likely it will be a short-term "prick." Further ideas for growth there. Only one thing: to raise money in the footsteps Long, ie to correct sharply, and only then venturing hike to 54.
Correction to the 37-36 market will not solve the problem. It is necessary to go lower, it is possible to confirm the lows at 27. The price of oil can support the increase in Fed interest rates and the growth of a pair of E / above $ 1.22. Thus, taking into account the forecasts for the time of such event, the correction in oil is 1-3 months.
On the jump of oil to $ 46 / b in either the current sideways at current quotes the ruble will test a third acceleration line (3 - from 07.14), and then unfold the north. Minimums may be 65.3 or the breakdown of the short-term to 63.8 p / $. When the correction of oil to $ 27 / b, the ruble will retest at 80 p / $. In general, the oil in the channel 54-27 to 61-82 rubles drawn channel.