Analysis of the dynamics of oil prices is interesting in itself, but especially - given its influence on the exchange rate, and of a greater degree - on the state of the Russian economy as a whole. Although the correlation between oil prices and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble recently significantly diminished (by well-known formula), I think no one will dispute the fact that in determining the "fair" exchange rate, the price of oil has been and will remain in the near future and the first determining factor. At least until such time as the Russian economy is not reconstructed structurally and fundamentally change the dependence of foreign exchange earnings of the country in the first place due to energy exports.
In drawing up the forecasts suggest that oil prices start from two postulates:
1.Tseny oil is virtually impossible to predict.
2. The market is so constituted that he should deceive the majority of market participants.
As to the first point - that go far and do not. Even remembering the last year and a half, or even months, few politicians and economists might suggest a course at the end of 2015 in the 36-38 dollars per barrel. Thus, while reducing the price to $ 100 / barrel - a temporary decline seemed to 70-80 dollarov- even less likely event that's about the price will return to the "just" $ 100 and up, well, $ 50-60 - regarded as the most unrealistic and pessimistic forecasts ... It took a little time, and we are in relation to current levels would be considered the price of happiness ...
Thus, when the price of oil will go further down or up will unfold, we find this fundamental and technical factors, but it will be after the fact, but in the present, we can only find an explanation - why we are where we are. And wonder why this happens, because according to all the analyzes and forecasts - it should not be.
To justify the first statement will analyze the fundamental and technical reasons was decrease in prices, as well as prospects for the further evolution of prices, depending on the following factors.
So, the fundamental factors influencing the decline in oil prices: up to now there is an overabundance of world oil production - the excess global supply over demand; country OPEC cartel could not agree on a common policy, fighting for their share of the market and in the fight to oust competitors; possible increase in oil supplies due to market of Iran; abolition of the 40-year ban on the export of crude oil from the United States;lower costs of oil companies for the extraction of oil shale and its continued production even at current prices;the continuation of hidden or open economic war against Russia by a number of states through reduction and maintenance of oil prices at the minimum levels for an extended period of time (years), the development of scientific and technological progress and the introduction of new energy-efficient technologies that impact on reducing energy consumption in the world whole ... And the list could go on.
Factors speaking, that this situation will not last long and prices should rise: separate slate companies go bankrupt and leave the market, which should affect the decline in oil production; the budgets of oil producing countries are cracking at the seams, and a long price war could lead to the collapse of these economies: the oil and other extractive energy resources - exhaustible and finite, money can also print without end, and have the true value of the resource name, the value of which is all the same will appear in future; at such low prices, the oil companies are forced to reduce investment in new fields and technologies, and the old - with time running out, that in the future lead to lower energy production. And one of the things, but the list can continue. In addition to the fundamental moments of the markets and speculators move emotions, markets characterized by "emotional" flights, and the price is almost never a "fair". After these falls would not it in the history of the ups and sharp? So where is the guarantee that there is not just such a situation?
Of course, these factors in the analysis are listed only in general terms, without figures, but the price of oil, as well as many economic categories, multi-factor model, and who will undertake to state more precisely what proportion of the price of oil is one of them? Where there is a "fair" price for the foundation where there is emotion, but where is the policy?
With regard to the second postulate has such a statement - "that even if the course (price) somewhere predictable and comes, she can make it the most incredible way." Therefore, the market can deceive and bears, who are waiting for a decrease in oil prices to 30 dollars and lower in rvanuv to levels of 50-60 dollars or more, that now does not seem very realistic, taking off their feet, and then again renewed its historical minimum up to $ 18-20 per barrel.
The current bull market could cheat by going on the $ 50-70 and up ... but before that comes down and removing the foot at the level of 18-20 dollars, for example by forming a V-shaped reversal pattern.
The level of prices in the $ 18-20 now seems unreal? Let's look at the price of oil in the historical perspective - years at least 30 ... In the 80-90 years of oil is at the level of 10-20 dollars / barrel, as well as many years while she was at these levels ... And these figures do not seem absolutely unreal . Quite the contrary.
Finally, the market can fool everyone by going to any sawtooth range close to current levels, and in the years to come. Any exit from it will deceive market participants on both sides, and then the prices will return to the current long-range ..
Finished his analysis of the same postulate, which begins with the analyst - to predict the price of oil - is virtually impossible. History proves it shows. And who will do it - on the right will be the second Soros and Buffett.