Commodity analysts at Capital, Marke the RBC the ts try to visualize how the geopolitical factor may adversely affect the development of oil - by AMarkets materials.
The higher geopolitical risk, the more barrels of black gold under threat - can easily fall out of the global supply of oil on the market. The graph - a geopolitical risk in respect of the main producing countries of OPEC oil, as well as the output (the larger diameter of the circle, the more oil producing country):
It is worth paying attention to the group of dark circles. The greatest geopolitical risk falls on Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Algeria and Libya. The lowest risk to Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Iran, and Indonesia. The most minimal risk - Saudi Arabia. It is the largest oil producer and the "gray cardinal" of OPEC. But how could Arabia influence the global oil market, if other, albeit smaller OPEC players will start to slip? Smaller players are already dangerously carried away with the fact that trim fiscal spending, enjoy international borrowing and climb in gold and in bins.