In the course of its review of the "Oil - Future" of December 22, I want to comment on the current situation of the oil. In the previous survey a month ago were considered factors that could potentially affect both the growth and the decline of oil prices, and they are well known. At that time prices were still holding at levels of 36-38 dollars per barrel, and view some of the expectations - and suddenly the market reverses and finally go on as expected 40-50 dollars, and maybe higher. And in "unbelievable" and almost disastrous for the economies of oil-producing countries in the value of $ 20 or less still wanted to believe. ..
In that article, in terms of historical perspective, I am reminded of 10-20 dollars per barrel a few decade ago.
So, a month passed - that this time different?
Fundamental factors remain the same, only with Iran - it is not idle, and a fait accompli - the sanctions lifted.Chance of opportunities to negotiate between countries producing oil also increased, especially in view of the conflict with Iran and Saudi Arabia. Price since dropped another order of 25% and has traded below $ 28 / barrel, with periodic bounces a little higher.
However it is interesting to observe that background that reigns around the oil.
So, judging by the mood in the market, the growth of oil has almost no one believes, and does not expect it.Rather all reduced their forecasts for the oil market is already interprets any event only negative side to it. For bulls on oil today would be looking at probably as cranks. The question now is rather - when the oil price reached a new low, if at all, it will cost nothing?
Indeed, the market there is a saying in the clear and strong downward trend - "you can not catch the falling daggers as they do not stick to the floor and not stop shaking." And until the technical and / or fundamental signs of a trend reversal, become against the trend - and unnecessarily risky.
At the same time, can not but cause concern in the market mood - when all start to see the trend and expect only one scenario.
In this regard, I think that the stabilization of oil prices and a possible rise in the offing. Of course, this may not be from current levels, and possibly even the price goes even lower, forming any reversal formation of the "spike" in the "incredible" 15-20 dollars per barrel.
However, too one-sided negative background for the oil everything has become too "obvious" - there is oil, there is a fall, does not see that only the blind, do not talk about it falling just lazy. That is to say - the market is "clear evidence".
However, once the oil quotas now or later, but start to rise - and that's when all remember that oil - even if it is black, but still gold. And when the market trend is very obvious to all - it's time to start thinking about changing the "locomotive" that we're going.