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Main » 2016 » April » 17 » Oil, gold, S & P500 forex forecast for the week 18 - 22 April 2016: Buy on the rumor - sell the fact!
Oil, gold, S & P500 forex forecast for the week 18 - 22 April 2016: Buy on the rumor - sell the fact!

The forecast for the week of April 18 - April 25

Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 18-22.04.2016

In the coming week, it formed a mixed background. On the one hand, the decline in "risk appetite", which traditionally has a positive impact on the quotes of the precious metal. China's GDP in the first quarter grew by 6.7% y / y. The figures are still high when compared to most countries, but in the first quarter of 2015 was recorded the level of 7% y / y. Nor can we ignore the weak data on industrial production in the US.



Decline of 0.6% was recorded in March. In general, the first quarter of the industrial sector dipped by 0.6% and that in view of the low base of the fourth quarter of 2015. The volume of industrial production in the United States declining for two consecutive quarters: for this period, a decline of 1.79%. Such factors can cool the ardor of investors who last week bought actively "risky assets". On the other hand, low inflation expectations in the G-7 countries are etsya negative factor for gold. You can not ignore the possible decline in oil prices after the announcement of the results of the meeting in Doha, which also plays into the hands of "bears". 


Gold trading recommendations for the week : Players on the yellow metal in the new week is worth waiting for a side trade in the range of 1208 -1260.


Gold trading recommendations for the week


Oil BRENT forecast for the week 18-22.04.2016


"Buy on the rumor - sell the fact!" - It is this famous exchange rules should be used in the coming week.Starting from January 20, quotes the "black gold" rose on expectations freezing production from the world's leading manufacturers of energy. During this period, oil has risen by 55%. There was another driver for the growth of quotations - this reluctance US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in the first quarter. Growth rates contributes to the strengthening of the dollar, which puts downward pressure on oil in turn. FOMC in this regard, has also helped the "bulls" to disperse the quotes up. In my opinion, freeze factor is already included in the current prices of oil and now can go for technical correction. Moreover, in the US last week, once again reported about the increase in crude oil stocks at 6.63 million. Barrels, against a reduction of 4.93 million. Barrels the previous week. In this context, for two weeks of April it recorded a surplus of $ 1.7 million. Barrels.It is worth noting that now I was leaning to the development of a technical correction. Friday's release of the Baker Hughes oilfield services companies have to reduce drilling rigs in the United States by 3 units and increase drilling in Canada by 2 units. Recall that last week was recorded a decrease of 8 and 3 units, respectively. The rate of reduction of drilling in the US has slowed, and the Canadian oil industry believe that the current level of prices of raw materials is a profitable business. Thus, the "bulls" can not write this report myself into an asset. So far, of the medium-term uptrend is not necessary to speak the turn, as investors may again play a factor in the reluctance of FED to raise interest rates at a meeting on 27 April. 

Trading recommendations for oil for the week : Investors in the auction of the week is to sell oil to Sell on price increases to the levels of 43.00 / 45.00 and the closing of the transaction at the level of 40.50.

 Trading recommendations for oil for a week


S & P500 Index forecast for the week 18-22.04.2016

The first week of the season of corporate reports, the US stock market closed steady growth. Shares of the banking sector reported better than the consensus forecast and burst into clear market leaders. The financial sector by the end of last week on the weight by 6.08%, with growth of S & P500 1.62%. A report on inflation in the US in March also played into the hands of "bulls" in March CPI recorded an increase of 0.9% y / y, while the market was laid at the level of 1.1% y / y. Low inflation expectations traditionally have a positive impact on the stock market. However, I would not join the camp is now optimistic for two reasons. First, the leading US financial institutions, though the median reported better than expected, but still have reported a decrease in revenue and net profit. In this context, the growth of stock prices may be short-term and speculative. you must increase in quarterly profit to sustainable growth, which we have not seen. Firstly, in the coming week will be published much more corporate reports and the list includes such companies are highly dependent on consumer spending: J & J, Philip Morris, American Express, Coca-Cola, American Airlines, McDonald's. Taking into account the negative reports on US retail sales for the first quarter, corporate data may disappoint investors weak data. 

Trading recommendations for SP500 week : Players Sell to sell is the index of the growth of quotations to 2083/2103 and take profit around 2038.

Trading recommendations for SP500 week



Aleksandr Goryachev


Analyst « FreshForex »
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