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Main » 2016 » September » 11 » Oil, gold, S & P500 forecast for the week from 12 to 16 September 2016
Oil, gold, S & P500 forecast for the week from 12 to 16 September 2016



Forex. Weather forecast for the week September 12-16


Rate of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 12-16.09.2016


Investors in gold at the auction of the week reduction rate of the metal is used for purchases. Gold are two reasons Buy.



First, the market is the outflow of capital from risky assets, it will increase the demand for safe assets, which are in gold and the Japanese yen. September 9 at the stock market in the United States observed massive sell-off: Indexes DJ30 and S & P500 lost bids for 2.13% and 2.45%, showing a maximum daily drop since June 24 after the announcement of the outcome of the referendum in the UK. VIX fear index last week rose by 46% immediately.Investors are deeply concerned and sell assets. In the currency market dinamikak as negative, for high-crosses: AUD / JPY and NZD / JPY for the week lost 1.66% and 0.90%. Thus, investors are rolled up carry trade operations. In the financial markets begin panic sell-off that has traditionally supported the quotations of gold. 


A second , weaker ISM data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the United States put an end to the Fed raising interest rates on 21 September that deprives greenbacks strong support and positive influence on the precious metal as the price of gold denominated in US dollars. 


Recommendations for gold for a week : Investors should buy Buy gold on the reduction of quotations to 1325/1311 and take profit around 1339.




Brent oil forecast for the week 


Quotations black gold despite positive on stocks in the US, could not hold above the psychological level of $ 50 / bbl and closed trading at around 48.01. What will the continuation of the upward trend, trend reversal? 


There are reasons for the second scenario: 


First , the Department of Energy has reported even though the reduction of crude oil reserves at 14.5 million. Barrels, this is the maximum for the last 17 ​​years, but it is necessary to take into account the factor of the unstable weather in the Gulf of Mexico, which broke the production and transportation of raw materials. This factor was neutralized, and the new week, we will see more than adequate performance.


Second , the company Baker Hughes once again reported about the growth of the number of drilling rigs in the United States for seven units to the level of 414 US oil companies to increase production capacity, it will put pressure on oil prices. 


Third , Russia, in early September, oil production peaked in 1991 - 11 million barrels / day.. Recall that in August the amount of black gold was at 10,71 Mill. barrels / day. For this indicator, Russia is once again ranked first in the world, overtaking Saudi Arabia, where the production level at around 10.69 million. Barrels / day (historic high). Thus, all the talk about the limitation of production is still just talk. In fact, the major market players are increasing their share of what is traditionally a negative impact on oil prices. 


Advice for investors in the oil for a week : the speculators is to sell oil on the growth of quotations Sell to 48.40 / 49.80, and fix approx yl mark of 46.30.



S & P500 Index forecast for the week 12-26.09.2016


September for the US stock market is traditionally a bad month, and this time the trend could be repeated. During the first week the S & P500 lost 1.96% and taking into account the sales of panic that we saw on Friday, the downward trend to continue. What reasons have caused a drop in prices? Causes of former investors at the time were forgotten and now remembered. The main reason for the negative - decline in corporate profits, which is observed the last four quarters in a row. If the company's profit is reduced, it has a negative impact on the share price. But why, then, the market has gone up, investors ignore this factor and suddenly remembered about him? Question logical and probably can give the following answer: in early September ISM released weak reports on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector (both indicators are leading indicators of GDP) and traders waited for a stronger economic slowdown than previously. In this regard, as many stocks and the market as a whole were near historic highs, the most reasonable to sell assets and go into the cache. 


Investors recommendations on the SP500 : Players should sell the index SP500 Sell on the growth of quotations to 2133/2154 and take profit around 2090.




Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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