Benefit central banks this week is in full swing. It so happened that for us the main events related to the "raw" central banks - Canada, New Zealand, Russia. And everyone - "its bells, its mark ...". Stephen Poloz, as we suggested yesterday, did not reduce the rate. And according to our forecast, after an understandable reaction down immediately after the event, USD / CAD pair rushed to the designated target of 1.33. The goal of noble, did not immediately take. Therefore, I am assuming first a natural correction to 1,3160-1,3190.
Drivers for it can serve as a rise in oil prices to 44,5-45 mixture of WTI and a further run the risk of cessation of the stabilization of the fear index VIX at least 20-25 points, not higher. And it needs to calm the Asian tigers - stock indexes in China and Japan. I think locally and will happen, but in general, nature will take his, and it is necessary to focus on the growth of the Canadian to the American namesake.
So, in a duel of central banks the Bank of Canada made a blank shot. But following slammed the New Zealander. Exit he did not have - and the general unstable background, and falling prices for raw milk - the basis of exports of the island. Add to this the economic indicators. Almost zero, 0.3% inflation, the problem of unemployment of 5.9%, a negative and a falling trade surplus. And while they all managed to keep the rate of 3% - an anachronism from a past life? Most interestingly, the new 2.75% and also look "not a fountain" at present. So, along with Wheeler - head of the RBNZ - waiting for further decline. Today the beginning of autumn, it's time stargazing. And while the star will fall, you can make a wish. To NZD / USD initially retreated to 0,6330-0,6360 to strong resistance and the intersection of Fibonacci levels. Hence let falls again - with the objectives in the area 0,6230-0,6250.
The Australian dollar could leave the other neighbor. Correlation is called. But not only. The same factors that put pressure on other raw materials producers, are very relevant for Audi. But nothing of China and say nothing - the main trading partner for exports. He uchudil today. Inflation in China have seen?
CPI in August rose by 2% compared to July of 1.6%. A producer prices dived 5.9%, more than the past fall by 5.4%. And then it makes sense to expect on consumer inflation in the future, the negative, that is, weak demand in China.
Therefore, AUD / USD forward to continuing to trend down to 0.69, but locally a correction to 0,7030-0,71.
Chart NZD / USD H4:
Mark Goikhman analyst TeleTrade
The company TeleTrade - 20 years in the financial market